Why MPS’ options to block a no-deal Brexit remain unchanged despite Parliament’s suspension

Parliament will be suspended for five weeks from mid-september, yet although that significantly reduces the amount of time available to MPS to block no deal, it doesn’t change their options.

♦plan A: pass legislation

On Tuesday, opposition leaders united behind a plan to pass legislation preventing no deal. Yesterday, Jeremy Corbyn made clear that Labour still intends to pursue this plan.

To do so, MPS will apply for an emergency debate under Standing Order 24, which John Bercow, the Speaker, must then approve.

In April, Mr Bercow allowed rebel MPS to use SO24 to pass the Cooper-letwin Bill, to force Theresa May to seek an Article 50 extension.

MPS could also try to use a motion under the Northern Ireland (Executive Formation) Act 2019 for the same objective.

Why it might fail: Proroguing Parliament leaves MPS with almost no time.

A bid to cancel the September recess is now no longer possible.

The Cooperletwin Bill passed the Commons in just five days, suggesting that even in the curtailed September session, MPS might succeed. However, the Government effectively rolled over in April. It will not do so this time and could instruct members of the House of Lords to simply filibuster the Bill.

The nature of the legislation and the time required to pass it means it will be a one-shot plan, with MPS not knowing whether it has failed until it is simply too late.

♦plan B: a unity government

If MPS can’t pass legislation, their next option would be to pass a motion of no confidence in the Government.

If it succeeds, Parliament would enter a 14-day coolingoff period. Opposition MPS believe that during that fortnight they could try to form an alternative government under a caretaker prime minister who would seek an Article 50 extension and possibly pass legislation to rule out no deal.

Why it might fail: Not all constitutional experts agree that Mr Johnson would be forced to resign. He may refuse to make way. More likely is that MPS simply cannot unite behind a caretaker PM.

♦plan C: a general election

If an alternative government is not formed and Mr Johnson cannot win another vote of confidence in the cooling-off period, there must be a general election.

Labour is expected to campaign for a second referendum while the Liberal Democrats are agreeing to a Remain alliance with the Greens and Plaid Cymru.

The Brexit Party could undermine the Tory Party in a number of key marginal seats.

Why it might fail: The choice of the election date is down to the Prime Minister. Mr Johnson could schedule it for after Oct 31 and not request an EU extension. But he may back away from such a move – an election in the middle of a no-deal Brexit would not be ideal – but MPS could not stop him.