Corbyn’s 2017 political alchemy is doomed to failure this time round

Jeremy Corbyn will hope that the next election campaign follows the template of the last with Labour overcoming an enormous and seemingly unbridgeable polling deficit to deny the Tories a majority.

Leaving aside the fact that he will be facing the Tories’ most talented campaigner, which certainly couldn’t be said in 2017, there is one significant difference between now and then.

Two years ago, partly because few seriously expected Labour to win, both Leave and Remain voters were willing to lend their support, on the basis that Theresa May didn’t impress the former and infuriated the latter.

He somehow gained votes by proposing a soft Brexit, albeit one that ended freedom of movement and our membership of the EU’S single market.

There then followed two years of uncomfortable scrutiny of Labour’s Brexit plans: was the party in favour of a second referendum? The answer was yes, no and possibly, depending on who you asked in the shadow cabinet.

Corbyn has been reluctant to abandon Labour voters who supported leaving the EU in 2016, while keeping in mind the larger proportion of pro-remain support. This circle was made to appear square in the run-up to the 2017 general election. But in 2019 any attempt to repeat that feat of political alchemy is surely doomed.

The campaign will focus relentlessly on Labour’s Brexit policy. Will Prime

Although Labour has been edging toward Remain for months, it’s surely clear that the leader’s heart isn’t in it

Minister Corbyn deliver a second referendum? In opposition he has demanded a public vote on any “Tory deal”. But in government we can assume there would be a new Labour deal – will that have to be approved in a referendum? If so, would he campaign for it, or for Remain?

In other words, unlike in 2017, this time around Labour will be scrutinised as a realistic alternative government, as will its policies. How united can the party appear if Corbyn, Diane Abbott, Sir Keir Starmer and Barry Gardiner are saying entirely different things (as seems entirely plausible)?

This is all the starker when we consider the opponents. On one hand you’ll have a Tory prime minister leading a party newly rid of its troublesome Remainer rump, risking everything on the conviction that Brexit must be delivered, with no deal if necessary, “do or die” by Oct 31.

Labour’s Remain flank will come under pressure from the Lib Dems, the Greens and the SNP. The appetite for muddling through is extremely limited when compared with the full-fat versions of Leave or Remain.

Even if Labour becomes unapologetically pro-remain, would it really win over voters who currently view the Lib Dems as a safer repository for their pro-eu support? Although Labour has been edging toward Remain for months, it’s surely clear that the leader’s heart isn’t in it.

Another upshot of its failure on a collective Brexit position is victory would all but guarantee a continuation of the division, anger and anxiety we’ve endured over the past three years.

Corbyn’s Brexit policy of constructive ambiguity might have looked like political genius once – but it’s fast running out of road now.