We’re a country no longer divided by class

Brexit has replaced a stable two-party system with a dysfunctional and fragmented four-party one

Major realignments of politics are rare in this country. They happen when parties are deeply and irrevocably split, and trigger a wider realignment of voters – like the rise of the Social Democratic Party in the early 1980s, which paved the way for New Labour.

Today, Britain is heading into one of the most significant realignments in its postwar history. Brexit and the gridlock in Parliament have already transformed our party politics. But with a fresh election on the cards the country could be about to see a far more profound change.

Earlier this year, the pollsters Populus threw light on the extent to which Brexit is completely reshaping

how we see the political world. The numbers are striking. While 66 per cent still said they identify with the main political parties, nearly 90 per cent now identify as a Remainer or Leaver. In a country where political loyalty used to be shaped only along the lines of social class this is nothing short of remarkable.

It is these deeper identities that are overturning unwritten rules. They cut directly across traditional coalitions of support and have turned one of the world’s most stable two-party systems into a dysfunctional and fragmented four-party race.

They are also profoundly reshaping the Conservative Party electorate.

One of the inevitable consequences of Brexit is that the pro-brexit Conservative Party would become far more dependent upon the groups that flocked to vote Leave – the workingclass, non-graduates and social conservatives who favour a clean break from the EU, tighter immigration controls and a tougher approach on crime.

But this came with a cost. While Conservatives have enjoyed their strongest levels of support among the working-class since the days of Thatcher, they have pushed others away. Since the referendum the Tories have consistently lost ground in mainly southern, pro-remain seats that have large numbers of middleclass professionals, graduates and ethnic minorities. An election this autumn would almost certainly entrench and accelerate these shifts.

What might this mean for the Conservatives?

For a start, the party will need to find a way of capturing a decent number of the nearly 160 Labour-held seats that voted to leave the EU – essential, if it is to offset losses in Remainia, either to Labour or the resurgent Liberal Democrats.

This will mean appealing to the values of blue-collar Britain by stressing Brexit, law and order, migration control and aspiration. It will also require Conservatives to put themselves in uncomfortable territory, speaking to voters who – unlike traditional Tories – feel far more anxious about free markets, capitalism and redistribution.

In the short-term, Boris Johnson may find that a realignment works well for him this autumn. He will be greatly helped by the fact that a consolidated Leave vote will overcome a divided Remain vote.

But over the longer term, Conservatives will need to work quickly to repair their damaged relationship with Remainers. Students of history will know that after major realignments in the past, like the repeal of the Corn Laws, or the rise of the SDP, it was the Conservatives who were often thrown out of power.

Mr Johnson is already pivoting back to Remainers by talking about schools, regional inequality, crime and the NHS. There will need to be lots more of this if Britain is to avoid the longerterm culture wars that have crippled the United States.

The risks are real. Another polarising election will organise our party politics far more tightly around our Brexit identities and leave less room to discuss what we have in common. This should worry us all. One essential ingredient of a wellfunctioning democracy is a willingness to engage respectfully with each other, especially on more controversial and divisive issues. Without mutual respect, societies quickly become a breeding ground for intolerance and prejudice.

Contrary to the hysterical claims of some Remainers, Britain has not yet descended into such a place. But the risks from a realignment are clear. We would do well to think about how best to avoid them.