Johnson can awake from this nightmare even if he misses Hallowe’en deadline
They say a week is a long time in politics. By last night, the Government had lost its majority, a crucial vote and, with it, its chances of following through with its promise to leave the EU by Oct 31.
An unprecedented number of Tory MPS, meanwhile, have lost the party whip.
One dreads to think what else may have been lost come tomorrow. The Speaker’s voice, if we’re lucky.
The Bill that would force the Prime Minister to seek an extension from the EU if a deal cannot be reached now looks certain to pass. The Tory peer Lord Forsyth of Drumlean and a group of Eurosceptic allies have tabled a series of amendments in what the Liberal Democrat leader in the Lords has called a “complete straightforward wrecking” strategy, in a bid to waylay it. They have also called for precedence to be given to a series of
Private Members’ Bills, after Labour proposed their own motion to ensure the Brexit delay Bill was heard by Thursday. This, ironically, will also further delay the process.
The Government’s strategy, though, is unlikely to succeed in the long run. It simply does not have the numbers in the Lords.
Furthermore, the Labour Party, having spent the last few years telling anyone who will listen that they were on a permanent election footing, demanding the Government call for one at every turn, have temporarily climbed down from that position, and are in no mood to offer the Prime Minister a lifeline such an election would hand him.
With the Government unable to prevent the passing of the Brexit delay Bill, and limping on without a majority, for the time being they are more than happy to sit back and watch.
Boris Johnson cannot call for a vote of no confidence in himself and lose it (or should that be win it?) as things stand; he would need Labour votes, and, as tempting as many would find it, there is no guarantee enough would be forthcoming.
That will surely change once the Bill has passed, though Labour may want to head into conference recess, and rally their base, before commencing their call to the ballot box once again.
With that Bill becoming law, and, even were a majority to suddenly materialise, difficult to overturn, the chances of the Oct 31 deadline being met seem slim at best. But failing to keep that promise may not be fatal for the Prime Minister.
It would reinforce to the public, when the election inevitably comes, that without a significant majority, Brexit will stay an unsolvable problem.
Public opinion remains in the balance over the issue, but it has certainly hardened over the prevarication of politicians, and the very clear fact that they are failing to deliver on the referendum’s outcome. Mr Johnson will be able to point to the speed of events since he assumed office, and the behaviour of his former Conservative colleagues, not to mention that of Labour MPS, to demonstrate that he alone is prepared to pursue Brexit.
The past few days perfectly illustrate the “parliament vs the people” narrative that No10 has been creating over the past month. They may end up losing their prized Hallowe’en Brexit, but if it allows them to awake from the nightmare with a working majority down the line, it will have been worth it.
Who knows, though, if that gamble will even come to pass. A week is a long time in politics.