If we are to achieve an orderly exit, we’ll need an extension after all

As the melodrama continues in Westminster, in Europe there is nothing to be done except to watch and wait. But in Brussels and major European capitals, there is concern an early Oct 15 election will increase the risk of a disorderly Brexit.

EU leaders meet on Oct 17 for their quarterly European Council summit, just two days later, potentially with Boris Johnson having been returned to office with a clear majority and his party sufficiently purged of Remainers to let him force through a “no deal”.

He would arrive seeking a Brexit deal that, it is now clear, amounts to a thinly disguised demand to erect a trade border in Ireland – which Ireland and the EU vow they will not facilitate.

Negotiations in Brussels this week were described by EU sources as little short of “disastrous” as David Frost presented proposals that amounted to the old Irish backstop text “with the unwanted bits crossed out”.

The EU continues to demand that any solutions maintain an “open border” in Ireland, while Mr Johnson persists in demanding the EU simply drops the parts that make that open border operable – without alternatives.

The UK also wants a “best in class” Canada-style Free Trade Agreement, but without the strings (on issues like social, environmental and state aid policy) that the EU says must come attached. On both fronts, the two sides are now further apart.

Still, the EU anticipates that a re-elected Mr Johnson might use the summit to try to force the EU to accept his demands, kicking the entire question of the Irish border management into a transition period where alternative arrangements can be discussed. As Mr Frost indicated, the “plan” is simply that with no deal staring the EU in the face, Europe will suddenly accept the demands it has rejected these past two years. EU diplomats are already gaming out this scenario, but quietly warn that Mr

There is concern an early Oct 15 election will increase the risk of a disorderly Brexit

Johnson is overestimating his leverage if he thinks that the EU will abolish the backstop under such pressure. Indeed they could even try to turn the tables.

“The point is that the ‘do or die’ tactic can be reversed,” said one EU source. “Europe can say, ‘Fine – die if you have to – but here’s the deal on offer’ and no extension.”

This would be a huge gamble, since Mr Johnson could reject the offer and go for a “no deal”, but it would force the issue – and it would mean beyond doubt that any “no deal” had been the clear choice of the PM, not the EU.

Alternatively, if Mr Johnson is elected with a majority that enables him to govern without a confidence and supply agreement with the DUP, he may become more flexible and conciliatory about the kinds of “fixes” to deliver an invisible Irish border.

Even so, EU sources say, if this was to lead to a new Northern Irelandspecific “deal”, which Mr Johnson was able to pass with a majority of MPS, there would still be far too little time to put the necessary legislation through Westminster for an orderly Brexit.

It might not be absolutely impossible to ram the legislation through the Commons, but to do it in a proper and orderly fashion it is clear it would require another extension to Article 50 – the politics of which would depend on the outcome of the election, leading to more uncertainty.

A third scenario the EU would wish to avoid following an early election is a hung Parliament – something that polls suggest is highly possible – which would again feed massive uncertainty into the system as parties scrambled to form a government as a Brexit deadline loomed.

All of which means that, from an EU perspective, it would be much better for the election to be fought after an Article 50 extension has been secured in October. Which is why Brussels is clear that any request for an extension will need to come with a firm commitment to break the deadlock and a time frame for that election.

Only then, the EU argues, after the shape of a new parliament becomes clear is there any hope for an orderly UK exit. Or not.