Resigning as PM may be Boris’s final hope – and his best option

The Tory leader’s choices are narrowing rapidly after he missed his chance for a snap election in July

Let’s be honest: the House of Commons has never been the most genteel of parliamentary debating chambers. Even its architecture is an invitation to a punch-up, with MPS separated by red lines marking the distance of two swords’ lengths. The benches face each other to replicate the first permanent Commons chamber on the site, St Stephen’s Chapel. After the fire of 1834, the new forum was deliberately designed by Charles Barry to be too small for the number of members and it remained so even after its post-war revamp by Sir Giles Gilbert Scott, giving the impression of always being packed to the rafters on momentous days.

So when tempers are frayed and the blood is up, the place can look and feel like a bear pit. On Monday, an unsuspecting visitor might have thought we were on the verge of insurrection as the Commons Speaker rallied parliamentarians against an executive which was itself using Crown prerogative powers to close the place until October 14. Black Rod, the Queen’s messenger, was howled down when she came to shut up shop. Labour MPS sang the Red Flag to

give us a flavour of what is to come if Jeremy Corbyn gets into No 10. The SNP chipped in with Scots Wha Hae.

Some flourished pieces of paper with the word “Silenced” written on them. I was only surprised that Mr Bercow, puffed up to epic levels of pomposity by a day of unprecedented sycophancy following his resignation announcement, didn’t stay put and refuse to go to the Lords, thereby completing his revolution.

Even by Westminster’s raucous standards this was pretty extraordinary. Tory MPS trudged to the Lords for the prorogation proceedings pursued by juvenile chants of “shame on you” from their opponents. Not since Michael Hesletine waved the Mace over his head while Labour celebrated securing the nationalisation of the aircraft and shipbuilding industries in 1976 by one vote have we seen such a spectacle. And as if to emphasise the political chasm that has now opened up, the Conservative benches were almost empty while Opposition MPS queued to shake Mr Bercow’s hand. He even gave Mr Corbyn a friendly pat on the shoulder.

Harold Wilson said a week is a long time in politics but two weeks is an eternity. I went away for a fortnight’s holiday and returned to a country in ferment, with bizarre talk of a coup d’etat. One almost expected to see tanks in the street and a uniformed Boris Johnson declared El Presidente for life. Certainly if he had shut down Parliament, as Cromwell did in 1653, the accusations would be justified.

But when I worked as a political correspondent the House did not sit in September at all. This is a recent innovation introduced after the expenses scandal by David Cameron because it was considered a “bad look” for MPS to disappear at the end of July until early October. The truth is that the suspension of the House is for just a few days longer than had already been planned. In the past it would have been much longer.

All those now saying they have been silenced had the chance to oppose the summer recess motion when it was put before the Commons in June. Had they voted against an adjournment they could have spent all of August holding Mr Johnson’s feet to the fire, but evidently getting away on holiday was more important than the fate of the country.

Of course it suits Mr Johnson not to have Parliament sitting given the trouble he got into when it came back for just a week. But it is not a constitutional outrage, which is why the Queen has agreed to prorogation and the courts have rejected the challenges to the exercise of this prerogative power ahead of the State Opening on October 14.

None the less, Mr Johnson’s options are narrowing rapidly. He failed to get a snap election but he should have made that move in July when he entered Downing Street, since Labour would have found it impossible to resist, whereas now the Brexit extension Bill has become law they call the shots. The opportunity was there but he missed it. Now he will have to fight an election after October 31 with the UK almost certainly still in the EU.

Effectively, he has until the end of the month to demonstrate the statecraft he spoke about in Dublin on Monday in order to secure a new deal he can put to parliament before October 19. If he hasn’t got one – or if he has but it is voted down – then he must, by law, request an extension.

However, this may not be entirely clear cut. Sir Bill Cash says the failure of the Bill to repeal section 1 of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act stating that October 31 is Brexit Day may give Mr Johnson legal cover to ignore the new law. But it will not give him political cover; and since he would rather die in a ditch than ask for more time, his only realistic option would be to resign.

The timetable for the next five weeks is fraught. Mr Johnson needs to negotiate a new treaty with the EU, preside at a party conference and prepare a Queen’s Speech which will almost certainly be voted down given his lack of a majority. Losing a Queen’s Speech vote is rare and considered a resigning matter. The last time it happened was in January 1924. That led to Stanley Baldwin’s resignation and the installation of a minority Labour government under Ramsay Macdonald.

If Mr Johnson resigned, the Queen would send for Mr Corbyn who could be sustained in office by other parties able to prevent him introducing any Marxist laws or passing any Budget measures. They would expect him to agree the Brexit extension Mr Johnson had refused to request and then hold an election. But he wouldn’t have to stand down until he is toppled by a no-confidence motion. Macdonald remained in office for nine months and was brought down because the Liberals propping him up suspected undue Communist influence on the government. Any parallels here?

Mr Johnson says he is “absolutely not” considering resigning as PM. But he said that about a general election and it was the wrong call. Not only might resigning be his only option, it could even be his best one. In the ensuing election in 1924 Baldwin’s Tories secured a majority of 209.