A last-minute deal is still within our grasp

A Northern Ireland only backstop may enable our beleaguered PM to get a deal through Parliament

Parliament has been shut down. The Government has lost its majority. Leaving without a deal has been outlawed, but the Prime Minister has vowed to die in a ditch, or at least meet some other gorily metaphorical end, rather than ask for another extension. If you can come up with a way out of that fix there’s probably a job waiting for you writing the escape scenes for the next James Bond movie. So hopeless has the impasse become that even another election might not find a way for Britain to finally leave the EU.

But hold on. There is still one small window that Boris Johnson might be able to climb through. It is just possible that a deal could be reached

that might squeeze through Parliament. Likely? Not really. But possible? Just perhaps. As a recent report from the Alternative Arrangements Commission made clear, there is still some scope for haggling.

The key problem all along has been the Northern Irish border, and how to keep that open even as the UK leaves the single market and the customs union. No one wants to see full-blown customs checks reintroduced. But there are other possibilities.

Such as? An all-ireland solution is the most obvious. Even outside the single market there could still be special arrangements between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

Start with livestock which, despite being a trivial part of the UK economy, has become crucial to the discussions, largely because meat production has evolved as if the border didn’t exist. It might be possible to come up with common rules on farming and food safety, even at the cost of some sovereignty, that would cover one of the largest cross-border industries.

There could also be a special economic zone covering trade between the counties closest to the border. Most trade, as it does within most regions, takes place within a fairly localised area, not across the whole of Ireland.

Next, there are a huge range of technical solutions, from electronic checks to trusted trader schemes. And, of course, the backstop could be limited to Northern Ireland itself, so that at least the damage would be limited if we never agreed a free-trade deal with the EU to replace it. It was Theresa May who wanted to extend it to the whole UK more than the EU.

The important point is this. There are still plenty of options that haven’t been tested politically. Admittedly, to make it fly you might need to add in a few extra sweeteners. A revamped political declaration would help. So would a commitment from both Britain and the EU to agree a freetrade deal within a year. The new Chancellor, Sajid Javid, has been spraying so much cash around that a few extra billion on our withdrawal bill could probably be rustled up from somewhere to keep Brussels on board. If all that could be agreed it could be presented to Parliament as a new deal, with a general election to follow soon afterwards.

True, the hardliners in the ERG would go crazy. The DUP leader Arlene Foster would be on TV with that “mother-in-law who’s just been told her daughter’s husband is off to the bookies via the pub” look she specialises in. But that doesn’t necessarily mean it would fail.

For starters, the ERG hardliners don’t have anywhere much else to go. If they could stomach a deal they would at least be out of the EU and they could still rewrite some of the terms later. The UK wouldn’t be locked in forever anymore.

As for the DUP, they were closely involved in the Alternative Arrangements Report so they may not be completely opposed to it. They can hardly threaten the Government’s majority any more. It is already gone. Perhaps they could live with it as well.

The Remainer Tory rebels? They always said they were fine with leaving with a deal. The Labour Party might be relieved to finally close the issue down, especially with the promise of an election. And as for the EU, with the continent slipping into recession it could do without the disruption of either no deal or its ugly sibling, endless delay.

It is not certain by any means. It isn’t even particularly likely. It will only happen, if it happens at all, right at the very last minute. But it isn’t impossible a deal could still be reached – and that is what it would look like.