No deal would be costly, but it gives Ireland a way back
As the UK submits its first papers to Brussels, there is a growing sense of optimism about a Brexit deal. Senior Cabinet ministers are visiting Dublin at the rate of almost one a day, fuelling hopes that a deal is quietly being done on the Irish border.
After visits by the Foreign Secretary, the Chancellor, the Northern Ireland Secretary and the DUP leader Arlene Foster this week alone, there are now whispers in Westminster of “backchannels” and the rising expectation that “something must be cooking”.
Hopes are raised even further when Jean-claude Juncker, the European Commission president, says he is “doing everything” to get a deal, and the dreaded backstop can scrapped by Oct 31 – if the objectives (an open border in Ireland that respects the EU Single Market) are met by other means.
But it is the sheer size of that “if ” that led Simon Coveney, the Irish deputy prime minister, to introduce what he called “a dose of reality” to the discussion yesterday, warning of the “significant gap” between the sides.
In private, Irish officials are gloomier still, warning that on the spectrum of possible outcomes, the current state of play leaves the two sides “much closer to no deal than a deal”, even if there is an absolute determination to keep on talking.
Mrs Foster’s visit to meet Leo Varadkar, the Irish Taoiseach, was described as a positive, but absolutely not a “Brexit breakthrough”. One official likened it to “two neighbours having a dispute agreeing to have tea”. It was civilised, which may be important in the months to come, because the reasons for Irish pessimism are substantive.
In 2017, Theresa May pledged that Brexit would not see a return to “infrastructure” at the Irish border or “related checks and controls”. The Johnson Government is now resiling from this position.
Technical “non-papers” handed to the European Commission yesterday are designed to demonstrate that so-called “alternative arrangements” can deliver a workable border in Ireland, even if it is not the “fully open” border demanded by the Irish government and the EU.
The British team believes that if Northern Ireland agrees to align with some EU rules, then a combination of “trusted trader” schemes, computerised customs declarations and political goodwill will enable the UK to leave the EU “whole and entire”, with an independent trade policy.
The Irish disagree. Take, for example, trusted trader schemes that see bonded consignments travelling between two fixed points still. Per EU rules, these still need barcode scans at the border so goods can be under customs control. All but the biggest “authorised consignors” must also go to offices of arrival or departure. Even if these are 10 miles from the border, they will still require infrastructure.
In short the UK’S answer to the Irish problem appears to be to create a trade border, just one set back from the wiggly line. The Irish government is clear it will not agree to this.
It is disturbed that as the threat of violence grows on the border – there was a vicious paramilitary style beating this week, and the attempted murder of a PSNI officer last week – that this Government is prepared to risk the stability of Ireland to deliver Brexit.
This is why there is no faith that better mood music or political spin in Westminster can bridge that gap – or that take-it-or-leave-it threats of the kind issued by Mr Barclay in Madrid will advance the search for solutions.
Mr Barclay put it thus: “Why risk crystallising an undesirable result this November, when both sides can work together – until December 2020”. Or, you can have an abrupt trade border now, or one after 14 months.
If that is really the choice, then it is absolutely clear that Ireland’s choice is “no deal”.
The belief in UK quarters that threats and fear of no deal will force the Irish to “blink”, overlooks the reality that any Taoiseach acquiescing in the re-partition of Ireland (as it would be seen) would be finished, along with their party as an electoral proposition.
No deal would be costly and disruptive, but politically it would allow an Irish leader a way back, since no deal still leaves the UK needing a deal, and providing a crucial point of leverage to demand a solution.
There remains hope in Dublin this can be avoided, and that Mr Johnson will be able to “pivot” to a workable solution, but that absolutely cannot include a trade border by stealth.
But for now, from Dublin, the Brexit glass stands more than half empty.