A troubled birthday

For a country as ancient as China, a 70th birthday celebration is historically anomalous. The grandiose parades and festivities that are taking place today mark less a renaissance of the nation than the moment when a new central power took over the land. On October 1, 1949 Mao declared victory for the Communist Party in China’s latest civil war and announced the foundation of the People’s Republic.

For almost 30 years, the country languished, held back by the ideological straitjacket imposed by its first leader. However, after Mao’s death in 1976 and the succession of Deng Xiaoping, China’s story has been one of the most remarkable in history. Deng’s free-market reforms supercharged the economy of a country that just two generations ago was almost feudal. China’s GDP overtook that of Japan 10 years ago to become the second largest in the world. True, wealth per head is still well below that of the West; but China now has a large middle class to act as an engine of future growth.

The regime in Beijing is pushing the boat out for this anniversary with a massive show of military strength in Tiananmen Square watched over by President Xi Jinping. But there are straws in the wind, not least the continuing trouble in Hong Kong, the trade war with America and the faltering Belt and Road project.

Furthermore, contrary to hopes in the West, as China has grown richer, the Communists have not loosened their iron grip on society or permitted reform. If anything, under President Xi, the oppression has only intensified. Will the regime manage to survive another 70 years, a totalitarian state ruling a relatively free economy? For all the might on display today, it is an open question.