Turkey’s attack on northern Syria will not end PKK violence at home

Turkey’s decision last week to attack the Kurdish forces in northern Syria known as the YPG alarmed Nato and appalled the Kurds’ Western military allies.

President Putin, with whom President Erdogan cleared his lines before launching the assault, has questioned the effectiveness of the operation. Even President Trump’s most loyal Republican supporters have sharply criticised him for giving Erdogan a green light on Oct 6.

It will have reminded the Kurds, who have been let down countless times over the years, that their only real friends are the mountains.

But in Turkey itself, the crossborder attacks are playing well for the president at a time when his popularity is falling and there is growing criticism of his authoritarianism. He was always wary of the US decision to choose the YPG as partner for the fightback against Isil.

For Turkey, the YPG are indistinguishable from the PKK, a home-grown terrorist group which has been committing acts of violence in Turkey for the last 30 years at a cost of 40,000 lives.

Public opinion has also grown critical of the presence of 3.5million Syrian refugees in Turkey. So the idea of creating a safe zone across the border in Syria, to which the refugees can be returned, has considerable support.

Turkey’s attacks on the YPG are unlikely to do anything to help end PKK violence. Rather, they could lead to an upsurge on both sides of the border, as the YPG fight back. Nor are they likely to help stabilise the situation in northern Syria.

With or without a rapid end to this crisis, the Kurds will remain aggrieved.

In the longer term, there needs to be a political solution. The best bet, for now, for Syria’s Kurds, is likely to be the kind of limited, autonomous region that the Kurds of northern Iraq now enjoy. Even that, however, would continue to worry Turkey as long as the PKK/YPG remain active as a terrorist group inside its territory.

The aims of the PKK have evolved over the years. If they could now renounce the use of violence as part of an understanding with the Turkish government that the reform process of the early years of the Erdogan government will resume, everyone could emerge a winner.

Peter Westmacott was British ambassador to Turkey, France and the US and is an Atlantic Council fellow