All Blacks still have magic but the spell can be broken

Charlie Morgan ranks the eight quarter-finalists and says that while the champions are the team to beat, there are plenty of threats elsewhere

1 New Zealand Reasons to be cheerful

A 23-13 victory over South Africa, and more pertinently a four-minute blitz of 17 points, effectively wrapped up Pool B. It was the best passage of play from any side in the tournament – until Japan’s first half against Scotland. New Zealand absorbed an aggressive opening from the Springboks before sensing blood and picking them apart. Their defence, featuring Ardie Savea’s breakdown scavenging, held firm. It was a problem-solving, streetwise display. Since then, the All Blacks have challenged themselves to play expansively. Reasons to be fearful Yellow cards for props Nepo Laulala and Ofa Tu’ungafasi for high tackles against Namibia caused one to wonder whether New Zealand could be susceptible to a costlier discipline lapse down the line. South Africa troubled their line-out, too. The return of Brodie Retallick will help. The only other concern is straw-clutching: given the abandonment of their final pool match against Italy, might they be undercooked? Star man Ardie Savea

2 South Africa Reasons to be cheerful

A pragmatic template based on clever tactical kicking, hard chasing, Jacques Nienaber’s rush defence and swarming breakdown play seems in good order. South Africa’s imposing forwards are not easy to nullify. Behind the pack, there is even more power and plenty of pace. Fast-twitch scrum-half Cobus Reinach must be putting pressure on Faf de Klerk, while wing Cheslin Kolbe should recover from an ankle complaint. The hot-stepper capable of igniting an opening out of very little has been wonderful. Reasons to be fearful It took Andrea Lovotti’s brainless red card for South Africa to pull away from Italy and they ended up with just one try to show for a great deal of territorial pressure against New Zealand. Their scrum crumbled late on. Rassie Erasmus was left to rue indiscipline as his team conceded nine penalties. Star man Cheslin Kolbe

3 Wales Reasons to be cheerful

Ignoring the warm-ups, Wales are now on a run of 18 successive wins. That habit came in handy against Australia and Fiji. Their fitness reserves run deep and their resolve is strong. Wales tend to kick long and trust a disciplined but aggressive defence to suffocate opponents. They out-work teams and break their will. Captain Alun Wyn Jones keeps fighting. Justin Tipuric has been freed up by grafting back-rowers around him. Dan Biggar’s game management is canny and Jonathan Davies, a gnarled defensive general, is capable of barnstorming breaks. Liam Williams’s counter-attacking stirs team-mates. Reasons to be fearful Wales’s ball movement has been awkward. Numerous passes have sailed behind runners. The scrum has creaked, too. Star man Josh Navidi

4 England Reasons to be cheerful

You can only beat what is in front of you, and England have not afforded anyone a sniff. Clearly, they have faced limited opposition. Still, in conceding 20 points and only two tries they have stuck to a game-plan designed for the humidity. Their varied kicking has controlled territory. Joe Marler, Maro Itoje, Sam Underhill and Tom Curry have harried and harassed. Solid scrummaging and a polished line-out have given them a robust platform and George Ford is pulling the strings nicely. Reasons to be fearful Ball retention has not been perfect and Owen Farrell has been below par. Billy Vunipola also looks slightly subdued and Ben Youngs’s box-kicking has been erratic. England have yet to be tested. They need to move the ball more accurately and cut out knock-ons. Star man Maro Itoje

5 Japan Reasons to be cheerful

The quick, disciplined phase-play that charmed four years ago has become even faster and more assured. Zig-zagging from ruck to ruck, superb scrum-half Yutaka Nagare has directed proceedings and they have playmakers everywhere. In Kotaro Matsushima and Kenki Fukuoka, Japan also possess two lightning, predatory wings. The squad’s obvious togetherness shows in determined defence. Back-rowers Michael Leitch and Kazuki Himeno – two exceptional, all-round players – lead the way. Finally, their set-piece efficiency and technical prowess make up for a lack of heft. Reasons to be fearful A quarter-final against South Africa represents a re-run of the 2015 “Brighton Miracle”, but the Springboks beat Japan 41-7 last month, pressuring them with towering kicks and feasting on any turnovers. Star man Kenki Fukuoka

6 Ireland Reasons to be cheerful

The wins over Scotland and Samoa showed their precise, ultra-disciplined approach still works. Conor Murray fed his forwards and punchy phase-play won out. Robbie Henshaw is back fit and Johnny Sexton has come through the group matches. Meanwhile, when Rory Best’s throwing comes good, Ireland’s mauling has been potent. After beating them twice in recent years, they will not fear New Zealand. Reasons to be fearful Bundee Aki faces a suspension following his red card against Samoa. Ireland were out outmanoeuvred by Japan’s rapid ruck speed. Then the hangover continued with what was a pretty underwhelming game against Russia. They looked past their prime and struggling for a spark. Star man Johnny Sexton

7 Australia Reasons to be cheerful

The second 40 minutes against Fiji and Wales were precisely the sort of assured rugby that characterised their 47-26 rout of New Zealand in August. They have a strong claim to being the tournament’s in-form scrummagers, too. As for the back line, Samu Kerevi began brilliantly and Dane Haylett-petty has caused problems. In 19-year-old Jordan Petaia, they possess an interesting wild card. Reasons to be fearful Reece Hodge’s ban foreshadowed three more yellow cards for reckless collisions. Michael Cheika might not agree with the new refereeing guidelines, but his players must. A selection merrygo-round at half-back is not helping fluency. The route-one policy against Georgia illustrated a worrying lack of variety. Star man David Pocock

8 France Reasons to be cheerful

When they blow hot – with offloading and support play creating space for Maxime Medard, Damian Penaud and Alivereti Raka – they can carve most opponents apart. Young back-rower Gregory Alldritt continues to shine, and the defence also deserves praise. Reasons to be fearful Will reported friction make France less cohesive or unite them? Either way, their game management has to be better. Tonga and the US troubled them. Romain Ntamack is not yet able to control matches as well as other elite fly-halves. Star man Antoine Dupont