Johnson edges closer to Brexit deal
Upbeat assessment from both sides Queen’s Speech says Oct 31 departure a priority Emergency summit may be called
A BREXIT deal appeared to be taking shape last night after sources on both sides of the Channel said a positive day of negotiations had yielded a potential solution to the Northern Irish border problem.
Sources in Brussels and London told
The Daily Telegraph there was “cautious optimism” that a narrow path to a deal could now be appearing – a marked shift in tone from the downbeat assessment from Michel Barnier, the EU’S chief negotiator, on Sunday.
With the talks on a knife edge, Boris Johnson last night cancelled today’s planned meeting of his Cabinet in order to avoid the potential for leaks that could derail the delicate discussions.
Downing Street sources said the Cabinet meeting had been moved to tomorrow “to allow for a more detailed update of the EU negotiations”, adding that the Cabinet had received its last update in a conference call on Sunday afternoon.
It came as Ireland’s foreign minister suggested negotiations could carry on beyond this week’s summit of EU leaders, amid reports that an emergency summit could be called to ratify an 11thhour deal close to the Oct 31 deadline.
Simon Coveney said there was goodwill and determination from both sides to get a deal, but that “it’s too early to say whether it’s possible to get a breakthrough this week or whether it will move into next week”.
At the heart of a possible breakthrough is understood to be a hybrid compromise solution on the question of customs checks in Northern Ireland.
Following his meeting last week with Leo Varadkar, Ireland’s Taoiseach, Mr Johnson has accepted that customs checks will not be carried out in
Ireland, but the two sides have failed to find what EU sources call an “operable” solution that works from day one. The
Telegraph understands that the two sides are inching closer to an arrangement that would enable Mr Johnson to make good on his promise to Unionists not to leave Northern Ireland behind in the EU’S customs union. The eventual solution may look reminiscent of a “dual customs” territory originally proposed in Theresa May’s Chequers plan – over which Mr Johnson resigned as foreign secretary – but applied strictly to Northern Ireland.
One senior EU diplomat said: “The big question is whether the pathway identified by Johnson and Varadkar is [metaphorically] wide enough for two customs lorries. That is achievable but remains to be seen.”
It is not yet clear whether progress made yesterday can translate into the outline of a deal by Thursday’s EU leaders’ summit, but it is understood there is political will on both sides to try. The EU is also understood to be open to the possibility of an extraordinary summit before Oct 31 if more time is needed to finalise an agreement, which could mean Mr Johnson attempting to repeal the so-called Benn Act when Parliament sits this Saturday.
The Act requires Mr Johnson to ask for a three-month extension to Article 50 if he has not agreed a deal by Oct 19, but if talks are at an advanced stage with an extra EU summit planned, he is likely to argue that no such letter needs to be sent. Yesterday, at the State Opening of Parliament, the Queen said Britain’s priority was to leave the EU at the end of this month. The Queen’s Speech set out six Brexit-related Bills of 26 that the Government wants to pass through Parliament.
A government spokesman said only that the talks in Brussels were constructive “but there is more work to be done”. Sources on both sides cautioned against any talk that the progress amounted to a finished deal.
“No one should underestimate the challenges involved,” said a second senior source. “There is slightly more optimism around, but let’s not overdo it,” added a third.
Mr Barnier will update EU ministers at today’s General Affairs Council in Luxembourg as both sides scramble to get a final text together for EU leaders to debate on Thursday night. One government source said: “These talks are really getting down to the nitty gritty now. It is complicated, but it comes down to political will to get a deal done.”
Under the Chequers-type plan goods
that could be “robustly demonstrated” to be destined for sale and consumption in Northern Ireland could attract a lower tariff if one was available as a result of a UK free-trade agreement. Goods for the EU would pay EU tariffs.
The European Commission is understood to be focused on an outcome that minimises the risk of creating back doors into the EU’S single market and, crucially, is immediately operable.
Trade experts said that despite the risk of “leakage” in the EU single market, it was not impossible for the EU to accept the risk so long as it was confined to Northern Ireland, whose exports to the Republic represent less than one per cent of total EU-UK trade.
Mr Coveney said both teams of negotiators should be allowed to continue in a “confidential and intensive” way.
He added: “What they’re attempting to do here is to write a legal text for an international treaty, that is a Withdrawal Agreement.
“That means it’s got to be watertight, it’s got to stand up to full scrutiny and legal challenge potentially, and what they’re trying to do is complicated.
“I think there is goodwill and a political determination to get this done.”
Last night Stephen Barclay, the Brexit Secretary, told the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbench MPS that remaining hurdles included the nature of a post-brexit trade deal between the EU and the UK.
Mr Johnson has indicated he is giving up Mrs May’s ambition for close regulatory alignment in favour of a free-trade deal that leaves the UK with full independence to strike new deals around the world.
But Mr Barclay failed to rule out a compromise over the trade deal.
The two sides are negotiating how any deal for Northern Ireland could gain democratic legitimacy at a time when the province’s devolved Executive has not been sitting for two years.
Mr Johnson has accepted that the DUP cannot hold a veto over the deal.
Among the ideas on the table are a simple majority vote for Northern Ireland institutions or a referendum in Northern Ireland to agree the deal.