Camilla TOMINEY
THE Brussels tunnel of Brexit negotiations is a dark place. Despite intensive private talks between Boris Johnson and leading Brexiteer Tories, no one knows the precise nature of the deal Downing Street is increasingly confident will emerge blinking in the light at the summit of EU leaders starting today.
As one hardline Brexiteer put it: “We are longing for this to work but nobody is committed yet to backing it or opposing it.” That has not stopped speculation about the response from the 80-strong ERG, of whom around 30 are the so-called Spartans who three times voted down Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement.
Reports are rife of splits in the camp with some, such as Owen Paterson, the former Northern Ireland secretary, allegedly denouncing the Boris deal as “absurd”. He moved quickly to scotch the reports, saying he referred not to the current haggling in Brussels but to the doomed May deal.
The betting in Westminster is that most, if not all, the Spartans will back Boris. As one put it, the alternatives are too grim to contemplate – a second referendum; a humiliating extension of the Oct 31 deadline; a collapse in popular support for Boris; even the loss of Brexit altogether.
On top of that, the Spartans face the loss of the whip and deselection in the looming election if they continue to vote against the Government, which would end some long political careers.
Tories of all stripes know the next few days will decide the party’s fate. A Brexit betrayal would open the door to Nigel Farage and almost certainly hand power to what one Tory called a “rhubarb and custard coalition of chaos” led by the quasi-marxist Jeremy Corbyn.
If the choice is between a compromise Brexit and a hard-left Labour government, it is not much choice at all, say many Eurosceptics. But there is another key group whose verdict will prove pivotal: the DUP. If Arlene Foster, its leader, and her cohort can stomach whatever customs, regulatory and consent formulas emerge from the tunnel, the ERG will largely toe the line.
As one said: “We cannot be more Unionist than the hardline Unionists”. Yet while Jacob Rees-mogg may have insisted the DUP will not have to be dragged “kicking and screaming” to support the deal, the Westminster group is understood to be split 7-3 in favour, with Nigel Dodds, the deputy leader, Gregory Campbell and Sammy Wilson thought to be opposed. The party issued a statement on Tuesday saying “gaps remain” after a 90-minute meeting between Ms Foster, Mr Dodds and the Prime Minister.
The Leader of the House of Commons declared with confidence on Tuesday that “the votes are there for a deal”, while conceding it would need the support of the ERG and DUP.
But it isn’t just the substance of the deal that matters – it’s how it is going to be sold to the public.
No Brexiteer Tory wants to run the risk of backing a Brexit In Name Only that would usher in a challenge from the Brexit Party at the impending general election. It is currently polling at 13 per cent – and though that is set to diminish if the UK leaves on Oct 31, Tory leavers fear a small minority of Eurosceptic voters could still turn against them if there has been no “clean” break, although Mr Farage faces an uphill challenge trying to convince them that Brexit hasn’t really happened as all his MEPS file back into Britain from across the Channel. The truth is, while there may not be trust in the deal
‘If the political declaration paves the way for a freetrade agreement… then it will be much more palatable’
per se, there is more trust in Mr Johnson negotiating the future relationship with the EU than there ever was in his predecessor.
As one Tory MP put it: “With Boris it may not be an ideal deal, but if the political declaration paves the way for a free-trade agreement – rather than the ‘close regulatory alignment’ May was calling for – then it will be much more palatable. We’ve more confidence in this lot than the last lot.”
As Iain Duncan-smith admitted on BBC Breakfast yesterday: “The truth is nobody quite knows where we are” on the negotiations, although No10 had assured him it was confident the deal would “fulfil the Government’s mandate”. That was echoed by Steve Baker, the ERG chairman, who emerged from No10 with other Brexiteers, “optimistic that it is possible for us to reach a tolerable deal.” But last night ERG members left none the wiser after a 1922 Committee meeting with the Prime Minister. While the PM compared the negotiations to being on the Hillary Step of Mount Everest – and to the tunnel scene in The Shawshank Redemption – no further details were forthcoming.
It seems there is still a mountain to climb – and Brexiteers still need a map.