Britain must leave now to end this damaging uncertainty

Raising the minimum wage to thirty quid an hour. A three-day week with no reduction in pay. Doubling bank holidays, compulsory duvet days and free Toblerones. There are many policies it would be a surprise to see business leaders backing.

But an immediate no-deal Brexit is probably top of the list. We have heard so many warnings about its potentially catastrophic impact we just assume every chief executive is against it.

But hold on. There are signs this is starting to change. In The Daily Telegraph yesterday, entrepreneurs, including the founders of Hiscox and First Property Group, argued that in fact any form of postponement would be the worst possible outcome. “This rank uncertainty is crippling British business and it cannot continue,” they argued. That is surely right – there is nothing more damaging to the economy than uncertainty, and the only way left to end it is to make sure we are out by the end of the month.

If no agreement is reached and passed by Parliament, there will be plenty arguing for another extension. Indeed, the Prime Minister is required by law to ask for one. Six months, a year, or heck even two years if we revoke Article 50 – it will all be up for discussion. We will be told repeatedly about the economic damage.

In fairness, it is certainly possible to see the logic of that. After all, if you are captaining a ship that is heading towards an iceberg, if you can slow down, that is surely better than crashing straight into it. Catastrophe postponed is sometimes catastrophe avoided. Yet, while that might have been true a year ago, it is now wrong.

The UK went through the referendum and the first two years of Brexit negotiations well. The economy expanded, employment kept hitting all-time highs. Even wages started to rise. But in the months since Theresa May asked for an extension, there are signs that confidence is crumbling.

Investment is down. Retail sales are slowing. While we avoided a recession, it was a narrow shave. In truth, it would be better to get out at the end of the month, deal or no deal. It will bring uncertainty to an end.

We don’t know what the impact of

‘90per cent of the economy isn’t trade with the EU. In or out makes no difference, but indecision hurts us all’

leaving the EU will be. No economy has ever left before, so it is impossible to say. It might be terrible, or it might not make much difference. But we do know that uncertainty is terrible for the economy. Businesses can’t plan and investors can’t forecast.

If you know something is going to happen, even if it is bad, you can map out a response. But when you have no idea, the economy freezes.

Business has prepared. It is hard to imagine any company out there that hasn’t put a contingency plan in place.

Systems have been designed, the paperwork has been sorted, alternative suppliers arranged and, where necessary, branch offices in Europe set up. And remember that 90 per cent of the economy isn’t trade with the EU. In or out makes no difference but argument and indecision hurts us all.

Finally, only once we are out can we move on to all the other issues. Even the most swivel-eyed Remainer will surely concede that membership of a big-but-not-terribly-successful trade bloc is hardly the only thing that matters to the economy.

Demographics, infrastructure, skills, training, tax rates and regulation are just as important, arguably more so.

After we’re out, we have three years of reform to catch up on. Delay that any longer, and the economy will suffer more than it would from no deal. If we don’t leave by Oct 31, we face months, possibly years, of argument and indecision. We don’t know for sure what the impact on jobs, trade and investment of leaving will be. But we know for sure that delay will be deeply harmful to all three – and it would be far better to simply stick to the scheduled departure date.