Care crisis fear as over 85s to double by 2043

Campaigners call for action as data show UK population is expected to rise by 3m in next decade

THE number of over 85s in the UK is set to double within the next 25 years, data suggest, amid fears it could worsen an escalating social care crisis.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) yesterday revealed the UK population is set to rise by 3 million (or 4.5per cent) in the next decade, from around 66.4 million in mid 2018 to around 69.4million in mid 2028.

The new figures reveal that the number of over 85s could hit 3million by 2043 – double today’s number of 1.6million – as people live longer.

Government statisticians said the population is set to rise despite an expected increase in the overall number of deaths, which is largely set to be made up by the baby boomer generation born after the Second World War reaching their eighties and nineties. An increase in net migration, coupled with a projected growth in birth rates, is set to outstrip the death rate, experts suggested.

The data last night prompted concern from elderly care charities and campaigners who fear that an ageing population is set to deepen an everworsening social care crisis.

Deborah Alsina MBE, chief executive of Independent Age, said: “People across England are navigating a social care system that is in crisis. As our society ages, and more people rely on this system, it is vital that high quality services are in place to support people at the right time.

“Action must be taken … to ensure that the social care system is fit for purpose, and that free personal care is part of that solution.”

In May, Age UK released research that found that within the next 20 years, the number of individuals with complex care needs is projected to increase due to more people reaching the age of 85+, “and these individuals having higher levels of dependency, dementia and comorbidity”. Last year, the charity reported that almost 1,000 elderly people a day were being admitted to hospital needlessly amid a crisis in social care.

Analysis of NHS figures by the charity found that there were 341,074 avoidable emergency admissions for people aged 65 and over during the year to April 2017.

The number has risen by 107 per cent since 2003 for those aged 65 to 69, and by 119 per cent for older people aged 75 to 79.

Many older people rely on family and friends to help them in the absence of reliable social care, the charity warned.

The ONS said: “The UK population is projected to grow by three million people by 2028. This assumes migration will have a greater impact on the size of the population than births and deaths.

“Although migration declines at first and the number of births is stable, the number of deaths is projected to grow as those born … after World War Two reach older ages.”

The data show that the population is expected to pass 70 million by mid2031, hitting 72.4million by mid-2043.