By offering both more time and an election, the PM is playing it clever
Faced with a split among both his advisers in No10 and within his Cabinet, Boris Johnson has chosen to triangulate. Faced with a Parliament that has, in principle, backed his deal but supposedly wants more time to consider its details, he has called their bluff.
By offering Parliament more time to consider his deal, but on the condition that they vote for an election on Dec 12 as a backstop, Mr Johnson is trying to enjoy the best of both worlds. (He has said that his preferred option is a short extension to get his deal done, but that seems unlikely to be offered by the EU).
The split among his ministers and advisers is simple. Some believe it best to go to the polls once Brexit is delivered to reap the rewards of a Brexit bounce, others are adamant that Parliament won’t pass the deal and that an anti-establishment campaign can sweep the Tories to a majority.
If enough Labour MPS do indeed come around to Mr Johnson’s deal and pass it without amendments, the Prime Minister can pursue that triumphant election campaign, having delivered on his promise to get Britain out, albeit a few days late – any extension will fall away once the deal kicks in – and having shot the Brexit Party fox.
If Labour refuses to co-operate on the deal, then it’s the campaign No10, and Dominic Cummings in particular, has always seemed to want – “The People versus an anti-democratic Parliament”. And the strategy has the added advantage of putting pressure on a particularly uncomfortable spot for the Opposition.
Labour is split between either avoiding what could be a catastrophic election and having a referendum instead or getting Brexit out of the way so the party can focus on its much stronger domestic agenda.
Two factors suggest the PM leans towards a pre-brexit election as his preferred outcome.
First, in reality, Parliament appears quite happy to pass Mr Johnson’s Brexit deal at this point. The second reading vote on Tuesday showed that. But MPS have also demonstrated a distinct disinclination to approve his plans for the future relationship with the EU.
The PM could, in theory, decouple the two without much trouble and head into an election having passed his deal but not yet secured a mandate for the future relationship. Instead, he has kept the two bound up.
Second, if Mr Johnson were confident about securing a majority on the back of a Brexit bounce in the polls, he would not need to worry about any amendments attached to the deal. Those could simply be repealed later by the new parliament.
Mr Johnson’s refusal to separate the Withdrawal Agreement and the political declaration, which is nonbinding, and his insistence on zero amendments suggests he knows that “Get Brexit Done” has a much more powerful and broad appeal across the country, and in the Labour heartland seats the Tories are targeting, than his specific vision for a post-brexit future.
Nevertheless, by offering both more time and an election, Mr Johnson is playing clever politics.
He neutralises a potential split within his own party, exposes Labour’s own divisions over whether to have an election and hedges his bets on the best political strategy. And, all the while, keeping what appears to be his preferred option as the most likely outcome.
‘If Labour refuses to co-operate on the deal, then it’s the campaign No10 has always seemed to want’