Swinson’s promise stretches credulity
The general election campaign 2019 finally gets into full swing today after the dissolution of an unlamented parliament. Jo Swinson, the Lib Dem leader, launched her party’s antibrexit campaign by claiming a “seismic change” in British politics was possible. We have witnessed such braggadocio before, usually from those occupying Ms Swinson’s third party eyrie, and it rarely amounts to much. Is it really different this time? There is, to be sure, a great deal of uncertainty around the election. But the “new and different politics” sought by Ms Swinson – and all her predecessors – is unlikely to emerge unless this election results in another stultifying hung parliament.
Her stated ambition is to win the election outright, revoke Article 50 and stay in the EU despite the referendum vote in 2016. That would require winning 300 additional seats, a feat unsurpassed in British history. Realistically the Lib Dems hope to hold the balance of power. That way they would be in a position to influence Brexit by securing another referendum.
But assuming there is no outright winner of the election, that would only be possible in a pact with other parties, including Labour. And yet Ms Swinson insisted yesterday: “I am absolutely, categorically ruling out Lib Dem votes putting Jeremy Corbyn in No 10.” Really?
It is always possible that, if Labour fails to win for the fourth time in a row, Mr Corbyn’s days would be numbered in any case and she might be negotiating a deal with a new Labour leader. But is that a risk Remain voters contemplating a vote for the Lib Dems are willing to take?
The fact is that the next prime minister will be either Boris Johnson or Mr Corbyn. Ms Swinson, we can safely say, is not going to make it into Downing Street but can influence who does. She is anxious to reassure Tory Remain voters in the south, who regard the prospect of Mr Corbyn in Downing Street as even worse than Brexit and who may shy away from backing the Lib Dems if they think there is any chance of that happening, either directly or indirectly in a hung parliament.
Yet, given her hostility to Brexit, do we really believe that, if she were in a position to do so, Ms Swinson would not put Mr Corbyn into No 10 in order to get another referendum? That is the question all Conservative voters need to ask themselves in the run-up to December 12.