As Boris redraws the political map, he’s changing what it means to be Tory

The base of the party will become more working and lower-middle class, and also more national

If the polls are to be believed, Boris Johnson is redrawing the electoral map. If he succeeds, he will redefine the Conservative Party and change British politics for decades to come. The Prime Minister has already converted the Tories into a resolutely pro-brexit party. Every Conservative candidate in this election supports his plan for getting Britain out of the European Union. The rebels he expelled from the party have either accepted his deal and returned to the fold, or been forced into permanent exile. The likes of Dominic Grieve

– now an independent candidate – will discover the true extent of their “personal vote” when they lose to their Conservative opponents.

With previous splits over Europe, such as after the Maastricht treaty, the Tories took years to overcome their differences. But Boris has been ruthless in unifying the Conservative ranks more or less overnight.

On December 12, therefore, the electorate will choose between an evasive and divided Labour Party and – almost miraculously, given its recent history – a unified Conservative Party. Voters know that if they give Boris a majority, his deal will be ratified and Britain will leave the European Union. And they know that the future relationship we negotiate with the EU will be based on a free-trade agreement, not a political treaty demanding the continued surrender of British sovereignty.

The question is whether Boris will win his majority. Despite the promising polls, the experience of the last election weighs heavily on Tory minds. In 2017, the Conservatives won an extra two million votes compared with 2015, and their highest share of the vote – 42.4 per cent – since Margaret Thatcher won the general election of 1983. And still they lost their majority.

The errors of the 2017 campaign were many, and of course contributed to the failure to win a majority. But as Professor David Runciman, the Cambridge academic, has recently pointed out, the main problem was that “the opposition vote coalesced unexpectedly around Labour – it was the falling away of Lib Dem, Green and Ukip support that did for [the Tories]”.

Strategists in Tory HQ are well aware that this election is far from a foregone conclusion. There are still four and a half weeks until polling day, and mistakes and misjudgments will inevitably happen. The polls might be completely wrong, or they might at least be misleading, presenting national numbers for an election with a complicated and fragmented electoral battleground. And what happens to the non-conservative vote is, as in 2017, a factor beyond the control of party headquarters.

With the polls showing a probable Tory majority, many voters might feel comfortable voting Labour, believing they are simply limiting the size of Boris’s majority. They might feel able to vote for a likeable and moderate local Labour candidate, believing they are not risking the election of Jeremy Corbyn as prime minister.

Then there is the danger inherent in an electoral realignment. It is certainly true that Brexit revealed and then reinforced a cultural divide in the country that was not represented by the mainstream political parties. And what we are seeing now is the party system slowly and painfully catching up with this reality. This means there are new voters and new constituencies up for grabs for the Tories, but it also means the opposite: many former Conservative voters cannot bring themselves to support a pro-brexit party. And with a realignment it is not only that parties lose votes as well as win them; it is also that we do not yet know the geographical distribution of the vote. The Tories might yet, just like in 2017, pile up plenty of new votes in constituencies where they still only finish second.

But if Boris does redraw the map and win his majority, he will be setting a fresh future course for the Conservatives. If seats like Wimbledon and Runnymede and Weybridge become Tory/lib Dem marginals, as the polls suggest they might, and if more seats in places like Stoke and Teesside turn Tory, the base of the Conservative Party will become less privileged and more working and lower-middle class, and less southern and more national.

And this shift is likely to become permanent. A decade or so after Brexit, we are unlikely to simply return to “normal”. The divide in values and interests revealed by Brexit will push the Conservatives in a more communitarian direction, and the Left – represented by Labour or some other force – will become yet more militantly liberal. Those who reject supranationalism and value the solidarity of a shared national identity will become core Conservative voters.

The consequences for the party – and the way it governs the country – could hardly be more profound. Of course, the Tories will still have their middle-class strongholds in the regions, but a Conservative Party that relies on working-class constituencies to form its majority, and has a sizeable working-class caucus within it, will be a starkly different party.

Those on the Right who dream of using Brexit to deregulate the economy, slash spending and cut taxes will be in for a rude awakening. Others who want to marketise public services, including even the NHS, will get nowhere at all. Those who want an open and liberal immigration system will be laughed out of the room. Once the Conservatives have MPS from working-class towns and suburbs, their agenda is likely to become immediately more pragmatic.

There will be an open mind about the state’s role in rebalancing the economy through industrial strategy, and more support for intervening in markets that are failing consumers and workers. There will be a stronger commitment to workplace rights and higher wages. There will be less emphasis on tax cuts for the prosperous, and more spending on infrastructure and services. There will be greater determination to build more houses and help families with the cost of day-to-day things like childcare.

The libertarians may recoil. But as historians know, this is no great departure from the Conservatives’ past. And if Boris Johnson wins his majority in Parliament, it is likely to be the party’s future. The new model Tories – with chequebooks in their pockets, regional accents on their lips, and a new attitude towards government – are coming your way.

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