No more heroes any more... has the music sector lost direction?

It’s a £100bn industry but critics fear the dominance of rock dinosaurs and venue closures is taking a toll, finds Chris Johnston

Paul Mccartney and Aerosmith are set to be two of the headline acts at next summer’s Glastonbury festival. Between them they have been making music for a combined 110 years. Performers such as Nik Kershaw and Boney M last graced the upper echelons of the charts in the Eighties, but they played Wembley Arena on a “package tour” earlier this month, and Simple Minds are playing 12 arena dates in 2020 on their “40 years of hits” tour.

The Rolling Stones, who played their first gig almost 60 years ago, grossed more than $400m (£308m) on their two-year No Filter tour that ended in August. Age – and even death – is clearly no longer any barrier to bashing out your greatest hits for the baby boomer generation.

While the slightly more youthful Ed Sheeran now holds the record for the highest-grossing tour, eclipsing the $735m U2 made in 2011, many in the music industry are starting to worry about where the next generation of stars capable of selling out stadiums is going to come from.

The UK remains a musical powerhouse, with artists enjoying airtime everywhere from Siberia to Senegal and Paris to Panama. The industry contributed £5.2bn to the British economy last year, according to trade body UK Music.

But it is feared that the young talent on which this success depends is dying out, along with the delicate network of venues that nurtures it.

Michael Dugher, chief executive of industry body UK Music, says the number of “grassroots” music venues has fallen by more than a third in recent years, with many of those Sheeran played at the start of his career closing. This matters because Dugher describes small venues as the “R&D of the industry”. Most performers start small after all. He is also concerned that the UK is drawing talent “from a well that’s getting smaller”, with anecdotal evidence that acts are getting slightly posher. “It’s now much harder for another Ed Sheeran or Adele or Oasis,” adds Dugher, who steps down next month.

Part of the problem in his view is patchy access to music education in state schools, which “shouldn’t be limited to those who have access to the bank of mum and dad”.

There are still some reasons to be cheerful about Britain’s music scene. The Brit school which hosts 1,300 students in Croydon, south London, does not face that dilemma however. It specialises in music, film, design and the performing arts for GSCE and A-level students and is funded by government and the music industry, making it free for students. A starstudded list of alumni includes Adele.

Its principal, Stuart Worden, points out that the creative industries is the fastest-growing part of the economy worth about £100bn. “It’s unlikely you’d expect someone to become a leading engineer or architect without education,” he says. “Adele is a leading musician but that happened through four years of education.”

But Worden is concerned about the wider lack of government backing for one of the few industries where Britain truly still leads the world.

“Where is the structural support for music in the same way as there is for other parts of the economy?” he asks.

“It is THE growth industry – I can’t work out why it isn’t fully recognised and supported at the highest level.”

To anyone who has used Spotify or Apple Music, the debate about where the artists of tomorrow are coming from might seem slightly perplexing. Streaming platforms now offer access to tens of millions of songs from almost any artist who has ever set foot in a recording studio. They have also rescued the recorded music business from what seemed like a death spiral only a few years ago.

Trade website Music Business Worldwide estimates that the big three record companies – Universal, Sony and Warner – will notch up revenues of $14bn this year, with $8bn generated by streaming.

“Subscription-based streaming has created a business model for the recorded music industry when it didn’t have one 10 years ago,” says Dugher.

Mark Mulligan at industry data firm MIDIA Research says streaming means labels now have plenty of cash to throw at artists and are “signing virtually anything that moves”. But the sheer volume of new music being produced means it is harder for nascent artists to break through.

In Mulligan’s view, consumers now have less of a relationship with artists and tend to focus more on the songs themselves.

Lil Nas X, who scored a huge hit in both the US and Britain with Old Town

Road, is unlikely to repeat that achievement. Similarly Australian artist Tones and I will be hard-pressed to top the 11 weeks that Dance Monkey has spent at number 1 (breaking the UK chart record for a female artist previously held by Whitney Houston and Rihanna with I Will Always Love

You and Umbrella respectively). “In some ways streaming is turning the music industry into a world of one-hit wonders,” Mulligan says.

“We’re finding out that a new set of rules are needed and we haven’t quite worked out what those rules are going to be yet – but it almost certainly requires both artists and labels to be much more agile.”

It’s not all doom and gloom, though. Gabrielle Aplin had a number one in 2012 with a cover of Frankie Goes to Hollywood’s The Power of Love – used in that year’s John Lewis Christmas advert – and is about to release her third album independently.

Despite not being a household name, she says it is entirely possible for artists to make a living from music. “For me streaming is my income.”

The demise of many small venues is a concern for Aplin, who says they are vital for musicians starting out on their careers. “Without them there is less opportunity for artists to build their live profile naturally,” she says.

He might be a tad biased, but the Academy Music Group’s Graham Walters says the UK live music scene is in rude health. His 22 venues, which include the O2 Academy in Brixton, Birmingham and Leeds, are “busier than ever”, with both ticket sales and the number of shows rising.

The Academy group is “constantly” looking to expand – and Walters says there are plenty of sites such as empty retail spaces that could be turned into music venues: “You just have to be a bit more creative.” Maybe the next Adele will be heard playing her early gigs on your local high street sometime soon – and giving the wrinklies a run for their money.