Who will survive PM’S Valentine’s Day massacre?
It is already being dubbed the St Valentine’s Day massacre – a post-brexit reshuffle that is set to define the future of Boris Johnson’s administration.
Despite the Prime Minister’s comfortable 80-seat majority, No10 is acutely aware of the importance of the optics around the proposed firings and hirings. Get rid of too many women and Mr Johnson risks being accused of misogyny. Give too many Brexiteers their marching orders and he is liable to antagonise the Tories’ influential Eurosceptic wing.
Inconveniently, the two ministers thought most likely for the chop –
Theresa Villiers, the Environment Secretary, and Andrea Leadsom, the Business Secretary – are both female and Leavers.
But in an echo of the drama that cost Mr Johnson the leadership in 2016 there is arguably a bigger problem: what to do with Michael Gove? The Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster is once again at the centre of Cabinet consternation amid claims he is causing division inside Downing Street by refusing to throw his support wholeheartedly behind a free trade deal with the US.
His stance is all the more difficult as the former Vote Leaver had been touted as someone who could help to oversee Britain’s trade negotiations.
Now, having repeatedly voiced concerns at Cabinet about chlorinated chicken and animal welfare standards, the former environment secretary is being linked to the presidency of the 26th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP 26), a crucial summit in Glasgow in November. Ironically, the proposed appointment comes after David Cameron, who broke off his close friendship with Mr Gove over his support for Brexit, reportedly turned down the role, as did Lord Hague, his fellow former Conservative leader.
Mr Gove is understood to have told allies he is “relaxed either way” about the coveted role.
Tory Brexiteers would rather not see Mr Gove, who previously had responsibility for no deal, overseeing any future trade talks. According to one senior Tory Leaver: “Michael doesn’t know a thing about trade. He’s a former journalist, he’s never negotiated anything in his life. When he was at Defra it was a chance to rehabilitate his image. He was hated by the Left because of his education reforms so he used that position to brandish his eco-warrior credentials, which is why he’s now banging on about chlorinated chicken.”
He is also mistrusted by Leavers for enthusiastically backing Theresa May’s despised Withdrawal Agreement. “His flip-flopping has resulted in some viewing him as fickle.”
There is also his friendship with Dominic Cummings, No10’s chief strategist, who advised Mr Gove as education secretary. The pair are so close they apparently have Russian nicknames for each other.
“Dom calls him Mikhail and Michael calls him Dominik or similar,” said an insider. “They’re thick as thieves.”
Brexiteers have long blamed Mr Cummings for prematurely winding up Vote Leave, of which he was campaign director, after the 2016 referendum to focus on Mr Gove’s failed leadership bid, which saw him knife Mr Johnson in the back.
Others in Cabinet also appear wary of Mr Gove. For example, Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, has previously been known to accuse colleagues of “looking to Michael for intellectual cover”, privately describing those in thrall to his undoubted cerebral prowess as “Govoids”.
With the future of Liz Truss as International Trade Secretary thought to be hanging in the balance, some Brexiteers would rather see Dominic Raab, the Foreign Secretary, running the trade negotiations with non-eu countries, describing him as “across the detail” and “quite scary”.
It remains to be seen whether Mr Johnson will appoint a secretary of state for EU trade in addition to international trade, having indicated in a speech on Monday he would run both negotiations simultaneously, describing it as a “great multidimensional game of chess”. Ms Truss will have taken comfort from that speech name-checking her four times.
Senior civil servant David Frost remains Mr Johnson’s EU sherpa but leavers have been agitating for a senior politician to oversee trade talks with the bloc. “This can’t just be left to civil servants,” said one. “We all know what happened when Olly Robbins was left in charge”, a reference to Mrs May’s former EU adviser, viewed by many as a “Remainiac”.
Both Ms Patel and Sajid Javid, the Chancellor, are seen as “bombproof ” in the forthcoming reshuffle, despite the Home Secretary voicing concerns about the Government’s decision to award its 5G contract to Huawei. Ben Wallace, the Defence Secretary, however, is considered vulnerable, having gone more public over Huawei and the Government’s treatment of Northern Ireland veterans.
Tensions between No 10 and No 11 resulted in Mr Javid championing HS2 despite Mr Cummings’s vehement opposition to the costly high-speed rail project, which is also unpopular with a significant number of Tory MPS.
Relations have not been good since Mr Cummings had Sonia Khan, the Chancellor’s former special adviser, escorted out of Downing Street by police last August. According to one Tory MP: “Everything Saj has been doing is to get back at Cummings. He knows they can’t get rid of the Chancellor right now, it would cause chaos, so he thinks he is untouchable.”
Relations have become so hostile they are reportedly being likened to the Israeli-palestine crisis.
According to one minister, matters may have been made worse by Mr Javid “pitching himself as the next prime minister the day after the general election”. He added: “He’s playing a long game. Saj has always been ambitious”. Such audacity would certainly not sit well with someone
‘Who will be promoted? – Anyone they can control who won’t cause them too much trouble’
who sees Mr Gove as the natural successor to Mr Johnson.
What remains to be seen is who might replace any of those relieved of their red boxes. Former ministers Maria Miller, Tracey Crouch and Penny Mordaunt are among the female names in the frame, along with Anne-marie Trevelyan.
“Who will be promoted?” mused one former minister. “Anyone they can control who won’t cause them too much trouble.”
Those familiar with what Disraeli famously described as Westminster’s “greasy pole” will understand how ambitious that recruitment plan may turn out to be.