In a divided US, impeachment could help him

Donald Trump is not the first president to survive impeachment – Andrew Johnson did so in the 1860s and Bill Clinton in the 1990s – but he is the first to be impeached and then face re-election. So, the question is: does impeachment make any difference to the popularity of an already controversial president?

The evidence suggests that it might actually help. The Republican Party has finally, definitively, rallied around Trump. If elite moderates were ever going to stage a mounted effort to bring him down, here was their chance – and even though most acknowledged that he did something wrong (Senator Lisa Murkowski called his actions “shameful”) they declined to find him guilty.

The Republican Party is now the Trump party, rank-and-file. The President boasts an impressive 94 per cent approval rating among Republicans. His approval rating is up overall. According to Gallup, it’s now higher than Barack Obama’s was at the same point in the election cycle in 2012: Trump is on 49 per cent, Obama was on 46 per cent. Trump is at his most popular since he took office.

Part of the reason is the economy, but it’s notable that impeachment proceedings gave a bump to Clinton’s ratings, too. The situation was different, of course. Clinton was accused of lying under oath and obstruction of justice, but the context was adultery, and many Americans felt this was a private matter.

But in the case of both Clinton and Trump, the attempt by one party to force out the leader of another looks undemocratic and it’s never theatrical enough to justify the effort. As we’ve rediscovered, congressional procedure is deadly dull; even Saturday Night Live has struggled to eke a laugh out of it.

Nancy Pelosi was said to be reluctant to try impeachment. Her hand was forced by Trump’s misbehaviour, but also by Democratic colleagues spoiling for a fight.

The party continues to play into Trump’s hands with a couple of historical firsts of their own. The delay to the Iowa caucus results made it look incompetent and denied Pete Buttigieg a boost in media coverage.

Pelosi and Trump then conspired to deny him airtime: Trump by refusing to shake Pelosi’s hand and Pelosi by tearing up Trump’s speech. Any damage done to Buttigieg is a mistake. This smart, young and moderate candidate won many of the counties in Iowa that flipped from Obama to Trump, so he’s just the kind of future leader the party needs.

The Left is divided; the Right looks united. Certainly more united than in 1974, when Richard Nixon faced his own impeachment crisis. It was when Republican senators turned against him that Nixon realised the jig was up and he resigned rather than face trial.

But now we truly head into the unknown, because history doesn’t teach us if impeached presidents are vote winners or not. Andrew Johnson tried to get his party’s nomination and failed; Clinton was already into his second term and barred from running again. Yes, he was popular, but according to Gallup, in 2001, a majority were pleased he was leaving office and 58 per cent said they didn’t trust him. His bad reputation might have helped George W Bush beat Al Gore. Bush – a teetotal Christian – was the natural antidote to Clinton.

Today, the American public is neatly split on whether Trump should’ve been impeached, just as it is split on if he should get a second term of office.

The fundamental dynamic of politics remains the same as it was four years ago. Trump’s fans love him; his critics despise him.

‘The Democrats continue to play into Trump’s hands with a couple of historical firsts of their own’