Next census could be last door-to-door social survey

System first introduced in 1841 could be replaced with cheaper and more effective data collection

NEXT year’s census could be the last after 180 years of the once-in-a-decade population surveys, says the UK’S chief statistician.

Prof Sir Ian Diamond, head of the Office for National Statistics (ONS), said he hoped to replace it with a cheaper, better and more effective system of counting and chronicling Britain’s population.

It would mark the end of the traditional postcards, forms and clipboards used by census field workers since it was first introduced in 1841 by the Victorians to replace the registers erratically kept by parish vicars.

Sir Ian said the ONS would trial the alternative model alongside the 2021 census to establish if it could replicate and improve on the “richness” of data generated by the more traditional approach.

Some £1billion has been invested in next year’s census, which is used by government, councils, health authorities and town planners as the “gold standard” for data to help plan and provide services from school places and hospital beds to roads and libraries.

The alternative would use existing “administrative” data such as address lists, GP records – without health information – council tax and driving licence records to provide a population count that could even be available “in real time” to planners and policymakers rather than every 10 years.

This would be supplemented by large surveys, primarily online, to provide the “granular” information that local planners get from the census on issues such as the number of people with disabilities. Sir Ian said the census was “incredible” in chronicling “who is in our society on this day and in this year at a really local level” and has been a gold mine for genealogists, historians and researchers for decades.

He promised that he would only recommend a move away from the census if he could guarantee that the genealogists of the 22nd century would have access to the same – if not better – data.

“We are only suggesting to move away from that if we can replicate that richness of data but to do so it has to have two things going for it,” said Sir Ian. “First is that it is equally rich but we can make it more timely. Second, it is a cheaper and more effective way to produce the data.”

He added: “My own view is that I think we can produce something that would go beyond the current census.

“I think we can get pretty close but there is work that needs to be done and at the moment that work is not finished. I am hopeful we will be able to get there.

“The census is an incredible, important and beautiful thing which is the only time we ask how many people live in your street.”

Next year’s census has already been modified since 2011’s to be more digital. People will initially receive postcard reminders, then a letter with a code to sign in online to complete their census form.

“That enables us to save money by targeting the field force at those places from which we have not had a response,” said Sir Ian.

He will make a recommendation to the UK Statistics Authority with the final decision on whether to end the census taken by the Government.

A census aiming to record the names of all individuals in households and other institutions has been held every 10 years since 1841, except 1941 due to the Second World War.

Each has progressively expanded content from names and ages to occupation, qualifications, ethnicity and relationships.