Scots face scrap to avoid wooden spoon
Losing to Italy could seal another last-place finish Hogg insists Townsend is not fighting for his job It is deja vu all over again. For all the fighting talk, for all the promise shown in Dublin and Paris, in beautiful spring conditions Scotland and Italy will once again duke it out to avoid collecting the wooden spoon.
In the Six Nations era, Italy have claimed the least popular kitchen utensil in rugby 14 times to Scotland’s four. The two sides’ domination of this area seems unlikely to end during this Championship.
At first sight Scotland look a shooin in Rome. Despite a disappointing World Cup, they stayed in contention against Ireland and England, winning a bonus point in both matches, while Italy were blitzed in Cardiff and Paris until Les Bleus eased off the accelerator. Italy have lost 24 successive Six Nations games by an average margin of 36 points.
Their record in Rome is dire, their last win coming in 2013 against Ireland. Yet they always have hope when facing Scotland. Although the visitors have won their past three matches at the Stadio Olimpico, in 2014 it took Duncan Weir’s 79thminute dropped goal, and in 2018 Greig Laidlaw’s 79th-minute penalty. Only in 2016 did Scotland win comfortably. Between 2006 and 2014, Scotland endured three successive losses.
Italy always raise their game for Scotland’s visits and they believe they can beat Gregor Townsend’s side. With the Azzurri, believing is halfway to doing, especially with new coach Franco Smith’s expansive but high-risk offloading game.
For a Scotland side struggling for wins, they cannot – must not – lose today. They performed well against Ireland and England, but international rugby is a binary pursuit and as Scotland’s win-loss percentage heads in the wrong direction, so Townsend is feeling the heat. If Scotland lose in Rome, the temperature will shoot up.
Not that captain Stuart Hogg sees it that way. The man leading the youngest squad in the Six Nations said: “The mood in camp is a positive one,” and that his side were on the cusp of a breakthrough.
“The only pressure is the pressure we put on ourselves. I don’t think Gregor is under pressure, he’s a terrific coach. It is us that play the game and we’ve been in positions to win Test matches, but we’re just not nailing every opportunity. That’s the reason we’re not winning.”
Hogg, whose outstanding performances have been undermined by high-profile and costly errors, knows that Rome is their best chance to get back to winning ways ahead of a tough 2020. He has, he admits, been hurt by both the errors and defeats.
“There’s a huge amount on the line because a defeat in a Scotland jersey hurts for everybody,” he said. “I’ve taken it more personally being captain, and that’s because I care, because I want to make a difference.”
Hogg added it is “100 per cent” a matter of time before that elusive corner is turned, yet acknowledges that patience is wearing thin. “The boys are learning what it’s like to play international rugby,” he said. “But we need to learn quickly because we can’t sit here in a couple of years’ time saying exactly the same thing we’ve said for a while.”
Scotland’s plan is to neuter Italy’s forward muscle by pressuring the breakdown, where Italy struggled against France and Wales, and playing a high-tempo, counter-attacking game. It is a fascinating tactical duel, and Hogg thinks it will be close. “The last three times we’ve played here, it’s taken us 70 or 75 minutes to grind these boys down. There are a lot of Scots coming out to support us, so hopefully we can make it a memorable weekend for them.”