Panel advising on lockdown accused of neglecting economic costs
THE Government’s scientific advisory panel is not hearing any evidence from economists, it has emerged, as one adviser said the strategy appeared to be too focused on the immediate health impacts of the virus.
The Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage) will meet today in secret before guiding ministers on whether to extend the lockdown.
Though the Government refuses to name the academics sitting on the panel, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Chief Scientific Adviser, has confirmed that the range of expertise is focused on public health and virus modelling.
It has fuelled fears that the long-term impact of the lockdown, which it is expected will be extended today, could do more harm than Covid-19.
The Office for Budget Responsibility said this week that the economy could shrink by 35 per cent this spring.
Prof Mark Woolhouse, who sits on Scotland’s equivalent of Sage but was speaking in an independent capacity, said that if there had been modelling on the economic and societal cost then it should be made public.
The professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh said: “I am an epidemiologist and I get the impression that the management of this epidemic is driven too much by epidemiology.
“I hope the Government is taking into account the broader societal costs.
“There is a lot of information out there on the epidemiological modelling and there is nothing comparable on the economic, social or psychological side,” he added. “We don’t want to get into the position where the cure is worse than the disease.”
Ministers have repeatedly said that they will be “led by science” and have published the evidence upon which they based the lockdown decision.
The document points out that Sage had not covered “economic considerations” and none of the subgroups that feed into it have an economic focus.
In response to a request from the science and technology committee, Sir Patrick said they were not naming the members of Sage, which he chairs, to protect individuals. However, he said the members came from more than 20 institutions.
Prof Peter Openshaw, vice-chairman of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group, which feeds into Sage, said that when he sat on the panel during a previous pandemic, economists had not been present.
He told the Today programme on BBC Radio 4: “That is really something which is done more at the level of the politicians.”
The Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “We are being transparent and regularly publish research and evidence … every day we are providing the Government advisers for scrutiny.”
Graham Stringer, the Labour MP who sits on the science and technology committee, said it was “outrageous” that the Sage membership had not been made public and “absolutely” important to include economists.
A government spokesman said decisions were made “based on the best available science, along with consideration of the economic, operational, social and policy implications”. Sage’s remit was “to provide science advice”, but “this is just one part of the picture”.