Students’ ethnicity is biggest factor in grade inaccuracies
BLACK and Asian students are more likely to have their grades over-predicted than their white peers, the exam watchdog has found.
Pupils from disadvantaged backgrounds are also more likely to be given overly generous predictions by their teachers, according to an equality impact assessment on predicted grades published last night by Ofqual.
The Government announced in March that all A-level and GCSE exams will be cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic and predicted that grades will be based on a combination of pupils’ mock exam results and “nonexam assessment”.
Ofqual published a literature review of studies which analysed the effects of predicted grades on students from different ethnicities, socio-economic backgrounds, genders and ages.
The exam watchdog’s review concluded that while there is conflicting evidence on gender and age, it is likely that the accuracy of predicted grades has a “genuine effect” on students depending on their ethnicity and socioeconomic background.
There is “more over-prediction” of grades of black and Asian students, as well as students from disadvantaged households. However, there is likely to be less over-prediction for high achieving students from deprived families.
One study considered by the watchdog found that for both GCSES and Alevels, private schools and grammar schools made the most accurate and least optimistic predictions.
However, the study’s authors suggested that this may be due to the fact
‘More over-prediction’ of grades of black and Asian students and those from disadvantaged backgrounds
that those schools have, on average, higher performing students.
Ofqual has previously said that pupils who are dissatisfied with their predicted grade will have the opportunity to take the exam at the start of the next academic year. However, a consultation document it published yesterday revealed that it will be up to each exam board to make a “business decision” as to whether they run appeal exams.
“Unless we decide otherwise, the default position will be that exam boards will decide which exams to make available to students in the autumn series,” Ofqual said.