Five-pronged action plan for exiting lockdown ...

DOMINIC RAAB last night announced a five-point action plan for lifting the coronavirus lockdown after announcing the restrictions would be extended for at least three weeks.

Amid criticism that the Government has not come up with a credible exit strategy for the shutdown, the Foreign Secretary detailed the criteria that would need to be met before reconsidering the unprecedented measures that were put in place by Boris Johnson on March 23.

Mr Raab insisted that the Government wanted “to be as up-front with the British people as we possibly can”.

Setting out “five specific things”, he said NHS capacity would be paramount.

1. Protect the NHS

“First, we must protect the NHS’S ability to cope,” he said. “We must be confident that we are able to provide sufficient critical care and specialist treatment right across the UK.”

Seven new “Nightingale” Hospitals have been announced which would increase NHS capacity by more than 10,000 beds, but currently only three are operational – at London’s Excel centre and in Birmingham and Manchester. “Pop-up” hospitals in Harrogate, Bristol, Warrington and Exeter are yet to open.

Although the Government originally set a target of 30,000 ventilators needed to deal with treating patients with the coronavirus, that has subsequently been lowered to 18,000.

There are currently 10,120 available ventilators, with around 1,000 acquired from the private health sector and the rest from imports and orders from small suppliers.

2. Consistent fall in deaths

The second point that would satisfy the Government would be a “sustained and consistent fall in the daily death rates from coronavirus”.

Confirming that 13,729 had now died from Covid-19, a rise of 861 since Wednesday, Mr Raab said the Government had to be “confident that we have moved beyond the peak”.

Although Prof Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer, has said coronavirus is “probably reaching the peak overall” and that there has been a “flattening” of the number of fatalities, concerns have been raised that the statistics only refer to hospital deaths.

Last night, Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s chief scientific adviser warned that the death figures are expected to “reach a plateau” before they fall.

3. Lower infection rates

The third test for the Government would be having data from the Government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) that showed the rate of infection was “decreasing to manageable levels across the board”.

Sir Patrick confirmed that Sage currently assesses that the rate of infection, or the “R” value, is “almost certainly below one” in the community.

That means that on average each infected person is, in turn, infecting less than one other person – suggesting that “it’s likely that the virus and the epidemic is now shrinking”.

But Mr Raab admitted that “we still don’t have the infection rate down as far as we need to”. There are concerns that some areas will reach the peak of infections later than others, making a blanket lifting of the restrictions across the UK problematic.

4. Testing and PPE

Mr Raab said the fourth point that needed to be satisfied was that the rate of “operational challenges” including testing capacity and personal protective equipment (PPE) were in hand, “with supply able to meet further demand”.

Last week, Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, pledged that 100,000 tests would be carried out a day by the end of the month.

On Wednesday, Mr Hancock announced that everyone in the social care system who needs a test can get one “immediately”.

Labour’s shadow minister for social care, Liz Kendall, has said that only 500 care staff had been tested to date, and social care needs “a much greater priority and focus than it has had so far”.

Downing Street says testing capacity now stands at 19,000 people a day.

5. Prevent a second peak

Mr Raab said the fifth and “really crucial” test to be met was ensuring any adjustments to the current measures would “not risk a second peak of infections that overwhelm the NHS”.

He added: “It would be the worst outcome, not just for public health, but for the economy and for our country as a whole.”

It came after Cabinet ministers met earlier yesterday and expressed concerns that a second wave in the autumn would cause even greater damage to the UK economy.

“It would be economically much worse in the long run if we try to step out too early and suffer a second wave,” said one Cabinet minister, admitting: “We are still very much still being led by the science.” Ultimately, Sir Patrick admitted that a vaccine would be the only long-term route out of the crisis.