Number of EU migrants in UK underestimated by up to 55pc

THE number of EU citizens in the UK has been underestimated by the Home Office by up to 55 per cent, according to figures for applications to the EU Settlement Scheme.

The data show the number of Bul- garians applying through the EU Settlement Scheme to continue to live in the UK after Brexit was 155 per cent of the actual estimated number of that nation’s citizens living in the UK.

For Romanians, there were 119 per cent more applications than the Home Office had estimated were living in the UK, while for Italians, it was 115 per cent, Spanish 111 per cent, Hungarians 107 per cent and Slovakians 103 per cent.

It suggests that the Government’s estimate that there are as many as 3.8million EU citizens who will apply to stay in the UK after the Brexit transition period could be significantly short of the actual figure. The underestimate also raises questions about the quality Government data on migrants.

The data are critical for Whitehall departments, councils, health trusts and schools to enable them to plan the appropriate level of services to meet demand and avoid being overwhelmed.

The flaws in the estimates have been exposed in new reports by Oxford University’s Migration Observatory and the House of Commons Library.

Rob Mcneil, deputy director of the Migration Observatory, said a 155 per cent miscalculation was “self-evidently problematic” and underlined the need to invest in high-quality data collection to provide ministers, officials and planners with better insights into migrant populations. It could mean there are tens of thousands more EU citizens than expected who have not applied to the settlement scheme and could become “irregular” migrants, needing to be removed even though they might be in jobs critical to sectors such as elderly care, said Mr Mcneil.

The Migration Observatory believes the Labour Force Survey could be giving the wrong estimate because it does not include people living in multiple occupancy houses, caravan parks or dormitories. It could also be due to applications by EU citizens who lived in the UK but had returned to their homeland, possibly temporarily, and were still entitled to apply because of the length of continuous residency they had accumulated in the UK.

The Home Office said that anyone with reasonable grounds for missing the June 30 2021 application deadline would have a further chance to apply.