Economists spell out their ‘traffic light’ exit strategy to ministers
BRITAIN could start to ease out of lockdown as early as May 4, say two leading UCL economists who have submitted their proposals to ministers.
It could start with small shops opening with the same social distancing policies as supermarkets, the return of “low-risk” activities such as beauty salons or hairdressers with staff wearing masks, and the reopening of all parks and private green spaces like golf clubs.
This first phase in the traffic light strategy would be the “red light” stage, when people must stop to think before they do things and avoid behaviours from before the crisis.
Michael Gove, Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, yesterday denied that ministers had adopted the UCL strategy and rejected suggestions that schools could return as early as May 11.
“It is entirely understandable, of course, that there should be a public debate,” he said. “It is the case that we are looking at all of the evidence, but we have set some tests which need to be passed before we can think of easing restrictions in this lockdown.”
The UCL academics say that if their first red light stage proved effective, it could be followed as little as three weeks later by an “amber” stage allowing unlimited private car journeys as well as family visits but no parties or big gatherings. This would also envisage the reopening of schools, small firms employing up to 50 staff, and restaurants, though with strict seating demarcations
‘We would still be reluctant to reopen large department stores, as they will host sales that may attract crowds’
to ensure social distancing.
Wearing masks and disposable gloves would be compulsory on public transport, according to the paper written by Dr Gerard Lyons, a former economics adviser to Boris Johnson at City Hall, and Paul Ormerod, a UCL visiting professor. “In order to minimise pressure on public transport and crowds, there would have to be attempts to vary the rush-hour, with different opening and closing times,” said the pair, whose plan is backed by Tory MPS including former leader Sir Iain Duncan Smith.
“We would still be reluctant to reopen large department stores, particularly as they will hold excess stocks and feel incentivised to host sales that may attract crowds.” It would only be in the final “green” phase that sporting events or mass gatherings could take place, and places of worship reopen.
This would also include any gatherings where a single person could infect many including theatres, cinemas and creative events like comedy clubs.
Larger firms would reopen, as would department stores. Larger weddings and funerals would be allowed while pubs, restaurants and nightclubs could also reopen at this stage.
The UCL economists say that total output in the UK seems to have fallen by at least 15 per cent and possibly as much as 30 per cent since the lockdown began. With the UK economy currently around £2.2 trillion, this equates to £42billion a week.
They advocate a traffic light approach as it would be easy to understand and give a clear sense of direction.
However, like the Government, they argue the trigger would be influenced by medical data, such as that used by Spain, Austria and Denmark, as the point where new cases were below half their peak level.