1,000 excess, non-covid deaths at home per week

As virus mortality figures fall, experts fear people are putting off vital help for other medical conditions

THE number of people dying in their own homes from non-covid causes has increased to nearly 1,000 a week, amid fears that people are still not accessing life-saving medical treatment.

Latest figures from the Office for National Statistics show that there was a 14 per cent rise in excess deaths at home in the week ending June 5, compared to the previous week.

Although there were about 538 fewer deaths in hospitals in the same period – indicating that some of the people had been moved out of wards to free up beds – there are still 992 unexplained deaths at home suggesting hundreds more people are dying than normal.

Charities have warned that many people suffering heart attacks and strokes are not seeking treatment in time, while many NHS services stopped during the pandemic, leaving people at risk. The number of excess deaths in people’s homes has now overtaken those in hospitals. There were 15,874 excess deaths in homes, and 15,506 in hospitals, between March 6 and June 5 in England and Wales.

Analysing the figures, Sir David Spiegelhalter, Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge, said: “There is a strong suggestion that this group of non-covid deaths have moved back home, or are people who have never gone into hospital. And I think that’s a story that will run and run as people try to investigate that more.”

Deaths at home are continuing to rise despite widespread falls across all over settings such as care homes, hospitals and hospices.

The new figures show weekly deaths from coronavirus have fallen to their lowest since the end of March with 1,588 recorded in England and Wales for the week ending June 5.

Experts also believe that the recent mild winters of 2018 and 2019 may also have led to higher coronavirus deaths because more elderly and vulnerable people survived than in normal years.

In 2019, some 111,668 people aged over-85 were expected to die but there were only 97,465 deaths, suggesting 14,203 people survived who would ordinarily have died.

New analysis of the ONS data by Prof Carl Heneghan of Oxford University, suggests that the excess deaths for England and Wales is likely to be only 31,417 when other factors are taken into account, such as age and population levels.

It means that the number of excess deaths is 16,000 less than Covid-deaths, indicating that around one third could be people who would ordinarily have died the previous winter.

Britain has seen two mild winters in a row, with temperatures higher than usual, and deaths from respiratory disease like influenza, lower than normal.

Prof Heneghan said: “The data looks like in 2019 there was a significant number of people coming through into this year in that vulnerable category.

“It’s important to recognise when you’re in that age group that’s vulnerable, once you survive a winter, this is where heatwaves or another flu outbreak can be catastrophic for you.”

Sir David added: “We saw right from the beginning of the year substantially fewer deaths than we would normally expect because of the mildness of the winter and the lack of circulating flu.

“That leaves a pool of vulnerable elderly people and something like Covid comes along and that can increase the death rate from Covid.

“Some of the victims are people who have survived last year, because last year was a very mild year.

“The other form of mortality displacement is bringing forward deaths that may have happened this year anyway.

“It would not be surprising at all if over the forthcoming weeks and months we see fewer deaths than the five-year average, both because it’s a mild winter without flu and because there will be an element of Covid taking up some deaths that would normally happen later in the year.”

15,874

The number of excess deaths at home between March 6 and June 5 in England and Wales – higher than hospital deaths