Let’s declare this pandemic over and get on with our normal lives

To some people, a second wave of this pandemic – more powerful and deadly than the first – is an inevitability. Hospitals have been instructed to prepare to increase critical-care capacity. The Nightingales stand ready to reopen. We are warned a much more rigid lockdown may be necessary in September. Waiting lists will exceed 10 million for the first time in history.

It is considered blasphemy even to question this strategy. And yes, I know predictions are tricky. And the vaccine programme is not looking good. But despite that, there are reasons to be optimistic.

Just look around the world. In Wuhan, China has tested 10 million residents and found no new cases. A minor outbreak in Beijing is being effectively controlled. In South Korea and Japan, it’s all over, and life is getting back to normal. In the West, countries such as Austria and Denmark, which eased their lockdowns two months ago, have seen further declines in infections, with no spikes. The same can be said for Italy, Spain and France, just weeks ahead on their coronavirus journey. Schools are back, restaurants and bars are open. City squares all over Europe are buzzing again – except in Britain. Why do we think we will be the exception?

Daily confirmed infections here are down from 6,000 just over a month ago, to around 1,000 now. Hospital and critical care admissions are at their lowest for months. Mercifully, our death toll is easing. Even the breaking of social distancing rules at recent demonstrations has yet to result in a spike.

Every pandemic has two players, the host and the pathogen, intertwined in a close dance. As the evening wears on they both change as the music becomes softer and slower. We have altered our behaviour dramatically. Social distancing, remote working, avoiding crowds on public transport – all have made it more difficult for the virus to find new partners to dance with. And our immune system has shown remarkable resilience, with evidence that two thirds of us have innate cellular protection mechanisms from cross-reactions with old coronaviruses without the need to make antibodies.

I suspect the virus is tiring – it’s changing its behaviour and becoming less aggressive. Several studies now report that the viral load in recently infected patients is much lower than it was two months ago. Its only purpose as one of the smallest, simplest, but also most beautifully designed living organisms, is to reproduce. It has no devious thoughts; it has no soul. And now it appears to be dying.

We must prepare for the worst, but we can hope for the best. A second wave is not impossible. But so far, our gloomy epidemiologists have been wrong on virtually everything.

We can’t sacrifice decent healthcare, our children’s education and continue to blow the economy based on their apocalyptic predictions. Our frightened politicians dance like puppets under the spell of a large committee of discordant advisers. We need far stronger leadership to get us back to the old normal. There is simply too much at stake.

Every past pandemic, from ancient Greece through to the Black Death in medieval Europe, only ended when society decided it had done so and returned to normal. This time, too, we have to move forward carefully, but confidently.

It’s time to call for the last dance – and go home alone.