Temperature rises ‘twice as likely’ to breach global warming limit

GLOBAL temperatures have a one in five chance of reaching 1.5C above preindustrial levels in the next five years, according to new analysis from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which doubles the likelihood from an earlier assessment.

Analysis last year from the Met Office, which led on the new report, put the likelihood at one in 10.

The Met Office said the higher figure was produced by using models from 10 different climate centres around the world for the first time.

The Paris Agreement, which governments signed up to in 2015, aims to limit global warming to 1.5C and at least 2C, based on averages over a 30year period.

Current warming is at 1C, which the WMO said would continue over the next five years, with a one in five chance that one year would hit 1.5C and a 70 per cent chance that one month would.

Petteri Taalas, the WMO secretarygeneral, said: “This study shows – with a high level of scientific skill – the enormous challenge ahead in meeting the Paris Agreement target of keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5C.”

Prof Adam Scaife, the head of longrange prediction at the Met Office, said:

“This is an exciting new scientific capability. As human-induced climate change grows, it is becoming even more important for governments and decision makers to understand the current climate risks on an annually-updated basis.”

The predictions take into account natural variations, such as the El Nino climate cycle, as well as human impacts. However, the calculations do not take into account changes in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of coronavirus lockdowns throughout the world.

The models also suggest that almost all areas are likely to be warmer than the recent past, with the Sahel region in Africa and other high latitude regions wetter.