A-level and GCSE results to be higher than those of 2019

A-LEVEL and GCSE results this summer will be higher than last year’s, the exam watchdog has said, after teachers predicted overly-generous grades.

Ofqual said that it was “not surprising” that grades predicted by teachers were optimistic since teachers “naturally want to do their best for their students”.

Teachers bumped up A-level marks by 12 per cent on average and GCSE marks by 9 per cent when they submitted their predicted grades to exam boards, the regulator found.

Teachers’ predictions were particularly high for some grades this year compared to last year’s actual grades, according to an analysis by Ofqual.

Last year, 25.5 per cent of students got an A grade at A-level and 51.6 per cent for a B, but this year teachers predicted that 37.8 per cent and 65 per cent of pupils would respectively.

Meanwhile for GCSES, 24.7 per cent of students were awarded grade 7 last year, equivalent to an A, but this year teachers predicted that 31.6 per cent of students would achieve the same grade. “Improvement on such a scale in a single year has never occurred and to allow it would significantly undermine the value of these grades for students,” Ofqual warned. The regulator explained that they have developed a sta- tistical model which means A-level marks will be on average 2 per cent higher than last year and GCSE marks 1 per cent higher. But even after moderation, Ofqual has predicted that students’ results this summer will be “slightly higher” than last year’s.

The regulator says that a “substantial number” of students will receive at least one grade that has been changed as a result of their standardisation process, which takes into account their past educational attainment as well as their school’s history.

The Commons education select committee said less affluent schoolchildren risk missing out on the exam results they deserve this summer as a result of an “unfair” system.

But Ofqual said its analysis found that “the concerns that identifiable groups of students would lose out from this year’s arrangements have not been borne out”.