Isolation for Covid to increase by three days
10-day lockdown for those with symptoms, but travel quarantine may be reduced
PEOPLE with coronavirus symptoms will be told to stay at home for 10 days, amid fears Britain is facing a second wave of Covid-19.
The isolation period, currently seven days, will be increased, the Deputy Chief Medical Officer will say today.
However, the Health Secretary will add that ministers are exploring ways to reduce the 14-day quarantine period for those entering the UK. It could mean that quarantine and self-isolation are standardised at 10 days.
It comes after Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, expressed fear about the threat of a second wave across Europe, with concerns that it could arrive in the UK in the next two weeks.
Yesterday, figures showed that the “R” rate was rising in four regions, and is now above one in two areas of the UK.
NHS leaders said there was “a very high” level of concern about a looming spike in cases, as well as worries about how the service will cope this winter.
Today, Prof Jonathan Van-tam, the deputy chief medical officer, will say that the isolation period for anyone with symptoms of the virus will increase. People in households of those with symptoms will still have to remain at home for 14 days, as will those contacted via the test and trace service.
Yesterday, scientists from Cambridge University warned that four out of seven English regions had seen a rise in the R rate, with the South East and the South West now thought to be above R1, meaning the virus is spreading exponentially. The Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit said it was now “very likely” that reproduction rates were close to one in most regions of England, which scientists blamed on the lifting of lockdown measures.
The Cambridge scientists estimate R is now 1.04 in the South West, when two weeks ago its rate was second lowest. It is 1.02 in the South East, where the rate was 0.92 a fortnight ago. Other regions are showing R rates of 0.9 or above: in the North East and Yorkshire, the rate is 0.9, and in the North West and London the estimated rate is 0.92.
Niall Dickson, chief executive of the NHS Confederation which represents hospitals and other health services, told the All-party Parliamentary Group on Coronavirus: “In relation to the second spike issue, the levels of concern among our members is very high.”
Prof James Naismith, the director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, said: “We and other countries are detecting young people with Covid-19. It seems likely that the virus spreads in this group first, but with few symptoms and little illness. We know the virus will spread in time from young to old. This will happen in a few weeks if we don’t keep the virus suppressed.”
A Downing Street spokesman said: “The Prime Minister is clear we must remain vigilant, and continue to follow official guidance to keep the virus under control and prevent a second wave.”
Today Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, will say that the Government is examining ways to reduce the quarantine period from 14 days. It follows research which shows that if arrivals are tested after a week, 94 per cent of Covid cases are identified, allowing isolation to be limited to eight days. He is expected to signal a willingness to reduce quarantine, but is not expected to commit to any specific period. Ministers are in talks with airport chiefs after the boss of Heathrow urged them to introduce tests on arival. Research from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine showed that an eight-day quarantine, backed by tests at seven days, would identify 94 per cent of cases. A six-day quarantine backed by tests would pick up 88 per cent of infections, it said.
It follows warnings that the number of people attending accident and emergency departments fell by 50 per cent
‘As the Prime Minister has said, in the future there will be an opportunity for us to look back, to reflect and to learn some lessons’
CLOSE to 2,700 people a week have died because of lockdown, analysis of official data suggests.
The study by economists and academics from Sheffield and Loughborough universities suggests that more than 21,000 people died as a result of the measures introduced in March.
The analysis examines Office for National Statistics data in the eight weeks which followed the national lockdown.
Researchers said the findings show that “lockdown has killed 21,000 people” because the policy has had “significant unintended consequences” such as lack of access to critical healthcare and a collapse in A&E attendances.
The study examines deaths data in recent months, and tracks it against long-term trends, taking account of other variables such as demographic and economic factors.
It suggests that lockdown – and the subsequent reduction in access to healthcare – increased total mortality by around 2,700 deaths a week.
It follows warnings that the number of people attending accident and emergency departments fell by 50 per cent at some points during the pandemic, while urgent referrals for suspected cancer dropped by 70 per cent. Separate research warns that such delays could mean up to 35,000 extra deaths from cancer a year. The new analysis by the University of Sheffield, Loughborough University and Economic Insight, suggests that the number of deaths which were not caused by Covid dwarfed the numbers which were.
It suggests that on average, there were around 4,000 more deaths from other causes than those which were caused by Covid during the lockdown period.
The estimates suggest 21,544 extra deaths during the first eight weeks of lockdown – an average of 2,693 a week.
Researchers said the continuation of social distancing measures may mean the total death toll caused by lockdown, and its knock-on effects, may be yet larger.
A significant proportion of the official daily death toll are people who had recovered from Covid-19 but then gone on to die of other causes, Oxford University experts revealed.
Unlike in Scotland and Wales, where there is a 28-day cut-off, anyone who has ever tested positive for coronavirus in England counts as a Covid death when they die, even if it is months later and from a clearly unrelated cause.
Researchers said the findings had “profound implications for both future policymaking and behavioural science”. Sam Williams, director of Economic Insight, said the paper raised particular concerns about the rationale for blanket lockdowns.
A government spokesman said: “This is a new virus, and an unprecedented global pandemic, and we have been guided by the advice of experts at every stage of our response.
“The action we have taken has allowed us to protect the vulnerable and ensure the NHS was not overwhelmed, even at the virus’s peak. As the Prime Minister has said, in the future there will be an opportunity for us to look back, to reflect and to learn some lessons. But right now, the most important thing is to focus on responding to the current situation, and that’s exactly what we’re doing.”