Despite the spikes, it is unlikely death rates will increase

The recent spikes of coronavirus cases in local areas are unlikely to lead to more deaths, latest NHS Test and Trace data suggest. Charts showing the age range of those testing positive for the virus in hotspots such as Blackburn with Darwen, Oldham, Leicester and Bradford, reveal that the vast majority of those affected are under 65.

In contrast, at the height of the pandemic, large numbers of older people were testing positive.

The age difference matters because older people are far more likely to be hospitalised and to die from the epidemic. Recent evidence suggests that the risk of death for under-65s is around 1 in 3,300. For under-45s it is around 1 in 21,000 and under-34s, 1 in 66,653.

In contrast, the risk of death is 1 in 859 for the 65s to 74s, 1 in 179 for the over-75s and 1 in 52 for the over-90s.

Admissions data compiled by the NHS also prove that the uptick in cases is not causing a similar rise in hospitalisations. There has been no increase in admissions, even in the North West where cases are high.

On Aug 9, the most recent date for which figures are available, there were zero admissions of anyone under 65 in the North West and just four people over 65.

For England, just five people under 65 were admitted with coronavirus on the same day, and six people aged 65 and over. The seven day rolling average for England by Aug 9 was just 19 admissions per day.

There are also fewer people now in hospital with Covid-19 than when the NHS began keeping records on March 20. Just 599 beds are currently occupied with Covid patients, compared with nearly 19,000 at the peak of the epidemic.

There is also evidence that the death rate from Covid-19 has been falling steadily since March, when it was around six per cent overall. It is now around 1 per cent.

Prof Francois Balloux, of University College London, said the effect could be due to improved treatment and also a “mortality displacement” effect, where many of the most at-risk people died in the first wave. Prof Balloux believes the effect may reduce the number of deaths in a second wave.

Yesterday the Government announced that it was putting no new areas into local lockdown, although none was removed. The “R” reproduction number was also unchanged at between 0.8 and 1 for both Britain and England. Latest surveillance data from the Office for National Statistics also show that cases are plateauing.

For the second week running, the estimated infection rate is 1 person in 1,900, with 28,300 believed to be infected in total in England and Wales.

The overall infection rate has stayed the same at 0.05 per cent, with 3,800 new cases each day.

Katherine Kent, who leads analysis of the ONS infection survey, said: “This week’s estimate suggests that the increase in infections in England seen in July has now levelled off. Regional analysis of antibody data for England, published for the first time this week, shows that a higher percentage of people in London have ever tested positive for antibodies to the virus than in Yorkshire and the Humber, the East Midlands, the South East and the South West, though there is not yet enough evidence to show differences between other regions of England.”

The weekly surveillance report by Public Health England for Aug 3 to Aug 9 also suggests that the virus is levelling off.

“The majority of Covid-19 surveillance indicators suggest that Covid-19 activity remained stable at a national level during week 32,” said the report.

The PHE surveillance data, which includes GP data as well as pillar 1 and 2 testing, not just track and trace, suggest incidents in care homes may have started to rise.

‘This week’s estimate suggests that the increase in infections in England seen in July has now levelled off’