About-turn sends Oxbridge admissions into a spin with over-subscription of 1,500 students

Universities face being overwhelmed by the number of applicants meeting terms of offer

‘I suspect we might see a situation similar to where a plane is overbooked and you get incentives to wait for the next one’

‘This will cause challenges at this late stage in the admissions process… particularly with social distance measures’

UNIVERSITY admissions chaos is predicted as Oxford and Cambridge colleges face having to let down more than 1,500 students.

The Education Secretary’s aboutturn on results left universities scrambling to redraw their admissions plans for this year. Gavin Williamson also announced that student number caps – brought in this year as a temporary measure to stabilise admissions and prevent institutions from poaching students from rivals – would be axed.

Experts warned that universities would be overwhelmed by applicants who had met the conditions of their offer and were expecting a place.

Allowing teacher predicted grades to be awarded will result in grade inflation of 12 percentage points overall, according to the exam regulator’s calculations.

Earlier this year, Ofqual asked schools to give each student a “centre assessed grade” – the mark they believed they would get had they sat the exam.

This is different to predicted grades, with which students apply to university and on which offers are given.

“A large number don’t meet their offers so highly selective universities hand out more offers than they have places,” said Nick Hillman, director of the Higher Education Policy Institute.

“I suspect we might see a situation similar to where a plane is overbooked and you get incentives to wait for the next one. So you might see incentives for a deferment – first dibs on the best accommodation, bursaries and so on.”

Cambridge University said it made 4,500 offers for 3,450 places this year, while Oxford made 3,900 offers for an expected 3,287 places. Both said they would have to offer some students deferred places as they did not have space for everyone to come this autumn.

Mr Hillman said next year’s school leavers faced a squeeze on places due to the “double whammy” of deferments this year combined with the return of international students.

Last night Vice-chancellors said they were “seeking urgent clarification from the Government on a number of crucial issues”. Some universities pledged to admit all students who are now able to meet the terms of their offers.

Queen Mary University of London said: “We are deeply sympathetic to all students affected by this change in policy in relation to A-level awarded grades. If, following the Government announcement, applicants’ revised grades mean they meet the terms of their original offer, we will guarantee them a place.”

Buckingham University also promised to honour all offers made, regardless of the A-levels they were awarded by the algorithm on results day.

Alistair Jarvis, chief executive of Universities UK, said while universities tried to be flexible, the “confusion of recent days has added further uncertainty and distress to students”.

He said Mr Williamson’s about-turn meant more students would have the grades that matched the offer of their first choice university. “This will cause challenges at this late stage in the admissions process – capacity, staffing, placements and facilities – particularly with social distance measures in place,” he added. “The Government will need to support universities through the challenges created by this late change.”