England v Germany: vaccine match will be game changer
The race to produce the first fully licenced coronavirus vaccine may come down to a play-off between England and Germany.
Kate Bingham, the chairman of the UK Vaccine Taskforce, the body in charge of the UK’S vaccine strategy, said yesterday that two teams – one in Oxford and one in Mainz, Germany – were running head to head.
“I think we have a shot of getting a vaccine this year,” Ms Bingham told Sky News. “There’s two potential candidates, one would be the Oxford candidate and the other one is the German vaccine from Biontech.”
These candidates are among six the UK has ordered (a total of 340million doses) as a means of hedging its bets.
Ms Bingham said she was “very optimistic” about all six vaccines but said the Oxford and German teams were most advanced. “Those are the two that, if everything works, could potentially be registered and delivered this year,” she said, with the caveat “it is most likely to be next year, though.”
Unlike the Oxford candidate, which needs a conventional manufacturing process, the German vaccine is based on MRNA. If proven to work, it can be synthesised in a lab at greater speed.
Both products have had successful phase one and two trials, with data suggesting they produced a “robust” immune response – antibodies and T-cells – in volunteers after two doses.
The teams are in phase three trials in which tens of thousands of people worldwide receive jabs to demonstrate safety at scale and their ability – not just to provoke an immune response – but to protect against the virus.
Dr Nick Jackson, of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, said the “distinct advantages” both teams had was partnerships with big pharmaceutical firms – enabling fast scale-up. Astrazeneca is backing the UK team while the German team is supported by Pfizer. Orders have been placed worldwide for billions of doses.
However, experts advise caution – up to 35 per cent of vaccines can prove unsuccessful in phase three. Some may not work at all and some may protect against severe symptoms but not prevent transmission.
It is also unclear how long any protective effect will last and early trials have been on healthy individuals aged 18-55, meaning it is unclear if they will trigger an immune response in older, more vulnerable groups.
Beate Kampmann, the director of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Vaccine Centre, is dubious about whether either vaccine will be available by the end of the year.
“They might have their phase three results [but] that’s all that can be said. I think, to use the word ‘ready’, is actually misleading,” she said.
Prof Kampmann said the “assays they use are not directly comparable”. “The trials we need are head-to-head comparisons and analysis,” she added.
Dr Jackson welcomed the race but hoped for multiple winners, adding: “It’s only [with] several successful vaccines licenced in the UK [and] around the world that we’re going to be able to deal with this pandemic.”
Asked how close the Oxford versus Biontech game might be, he said: “Will it go to penalties? No, I’m pleased to say it will be decided on evidence and data”.