A familiar pattern

There have been so many “critical” weeks for Brexit that it is unwise to predict another. Yet as talks resume after the summer break to negotiate a trade deal before the transition period ends, there is a distinct sense that a crunch is coming. Even though the UK left the bloc at the end of January, we have been living through the period of decree nisi.

The divorce is due to become absolute at the end of the year. There was an assumption, held not least in Brussels, that the Government, preoccupied with the economic and health crisis caused by Covid-19, would seek an extension.

But this proved wishful thinking on their part. Boris Johnson has made clear that the separation will be concluded on time, deal or not. After being accused of staging too many U-turns, this is one he is not going to make.

The EU has a choice, therefore. It can carry on insisting that the UK should remain as a satellite state, in which case there will be no deal, or acknowledge that it is once again an independent nation and deal with it accordingly, as it has for Canada or Australia. On vexed issues like fishing and state intervention the EU needs to recognise it is no longer dealing with a member state. The reluctance of the Brussels negotiators to come to terms with this reality is the biggest stumbling block to an agreement that is in our mutual interests to conclude.

Brexit brinkmanship is nothing new and has always ended in a breakthrough that has allowed a deal to be achieved. This week we should find out if this pattern is to be followed once again, or if no deal really is the most likely outcome.