A stern test for Liverpool and City can light up the toughest season of them all
By Jason Burt CHIEF FOOTBALL CORRESPONDENT The new term will be a real endurance test but it is time for the likes of Manchester United and Chelsea to be contenders Premier League campaigns are often described as a marathon and not a sprint, although – given the crazily congested calendar – it already appears that clubs will feel like they are sprinting a marathon this season.
So many games, so few opportunities to catch breath, so many uncertainties as to when fans will return, or if the season will even be able to finish at all: it is shaping up to be the most taxing of campaigns.
From newly-promoted Fulham kicking off against Arsenal at 12.30pm today, until the Champions League final on May 29, there are just four free midweeks – and all of those will be needed for rearranged fixtures. The biggest players are expected to play almost every three days, with five weeks lost to the coronavirus pandemic and the rearranged European Championship beginning on June 11.
Fatigue will be a significant factor, even if some supporters may roll their eyes at pampered sportsmen complaining. Size will matter more than ever, with clubs who have the largest squads – therefore by definition the biggest clubs – far more able to compete. Rotation will become de rigueur, as will recovery. Players will be sick of the sight of ice baths.
It will all be about rest and trying to go again, so do not expect any great tactical innovations or much work on the training ground. This will be – literally – the survival of the fittest. More than ever the focus will be on the sports science staff as much as the footballers.
In truth, such has been the pace set by Manchester City and Liverpool in recent campaigns that any title contender has to come out of the blocks at full pelt in any case, with no margin for error. City set up a formidable standard for two straight seasons with a combined total of 198 points, but they finally faltered – in fact, blew up completely – under the relentless march of Liverpool last term.
There is no doubt that holding off Liverpool in 2018-19, winning the league by a single point, took its toll on City last season. The question will be whether Liverpool will suffer a similar reaction and that theory may gain some backing given there was undoubtedly a diminution in their breathtaking form during Project Restart.
Anxiety levels have also grown among some supporters that the club, so far, have not done enough in terms of transfers. They have signed left-back Konstantinos Tsimikas, but Adam Lallana and Dejan Lovren have departed, and with a number of fringe players up for sale too, it seems to be a case of one in, one out. Set against that there is the emergence of exciting young players such as Curtis Jones and Neco Williams. All told, only a fool would bet against Jurgen Klopp finding a way to go again.
Retaining the Premier league title has become increasingly difficult, with City the only ones to achieve it since Manchester United in 2008-09. But given it took them 30 years to win it in the first place, it is inconceivable that Liverpool will relinquish the crown without an almighty fight.
The question for the rest of the league – or, at least, for those others in the Big Six – is how can they turn last season’s procession into something more competitive? As worthy champions as Liverpool are, and as enjoyable as their football is, the neutrals crave a challenger to them and to City. Someone, surely, has to eventually emerge?
What it will take is bravery even more than ability. Liverpool and
City are front-foot teams. To beat them, they have to be matched. So, which manager has the
cojones, the resources and the will to do that? If someone does then it could be game on, especially if a new challenger ignores the perceived wisdom that huge points swings cannot be made up in one campaign. Yes, Liverpool’s margin of victory – 18 points – is daunting. But football is not like a general election when a large majority gained by one political party can only be clawed back over time.
In 2017-18, Liverpool finished fourth, 25 points behind City and reduced that advantage to one point the following year.
The season before that, Chelsea were champions with 93 points – with City 15 points behind them in third. The following year, that difference was destroyed with Chelsea only gaining 70 points, 30 behind Pep Guardiola’s side. The season before that the gap between one campaign’s champions, Leicester City, and the next was even greater, with Chelsea 31 points behind.
History should offer encouragement to the chasing pack and everyone starts on zero, so why be shy? Liverpool and City – who are adding to their squad and who laid bare their ambition with a serious attempt to sign Lionel Messi – will obviously be favourites, but what about those trying to get closer?
Manchester United finished a distant third but, apart from their eventual cup disappointments, appear to have momentum and a sense of purpose for the first time since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. It may be too much to bridge the gap but Ole Gunnar Solskjaer surely has to get far closer, otherwise the focus falls on whether he can ever do
it. The final Champions League spot went to Chelsea, and with their opportunistic, exciting spending spree – with Roman Abramovich taking advantage of the Covid-induced constraints on others – there will be added focus on them and whether Frank Lampard can blend what will effectively be a new team. If he does not, the pressure will be on him.
How Jose Mourinho at Tottenham Hotspur must envy that spending. The north London club have traded smartly enough in the transfer market so far, but the sums laid out have simply exposed the financial burden placed on them by having to pay for their superb new stadium in this challenging climate.
Across north London, and although they only finished eighth, there is a sense of something stirring at Arsenal under their young, but sure-footed head coach, Mikel Arteta. The Spaniard has transformed the atmosphere and outlook at the club since his return, with a determination to organise and improve players. They could force their way into the top four and will be boosted by the announcement of Pierre-emerick Aubameyang’s new contract.
It should not be forgotten that Leicester and Wolves broke up the Big Six hegemony last season and would expect to do well again this campaign, while it will be fascinating to watch Everton’s progress now that Carlo Ancelotti has been given his head.
Can Sheffield United repeat last season’s exploits? Will the promise shown by Southampton and Brighton be advanced? And have Newcastle finally got their act together with some astute signings, even though the Saudi Arabianbacked takeover stalled?
Ultimately, survival could come down to which teams can field their strongest line-ups as consistently as possible. It could be brutal. Certainly the likes of Burnley, West Ham, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace could all go either way.
The greatest interest in the promoted clubs will naturally fall on Leeds, back in the top flight for the first time in 16 years, and fitting the sleeping giant cliche. The focus will largely be on their Argentine manager, Marcelo Bielsa and his upturned bucket, and what effect he can have on the Premier League.
There will be the usual jockeying for position in the next few weeks but this season, above all others, it will be about who has the hunger and bravery to maintain the relentless pace for longest.
Let the games begin.