Fraser Nelson:
The fightback against new lockdowns is beginning, as alarm about the economy rises
When Boris Johnson first asked people to stay at home, something incredible happened: they did. Police were not needed: compliance was near-absolute. But next time, when he asked people to go back to work, he was taken less seriously. He gave up on this message within a few days.
His latest plea – “work from home if you can” – was made last week. It has been heard politely, but ignored. People have carried on pretty much as they were. The first wave of the virus caused panic: the second one has not.
There is a new mood in the country, and it’s one that is being detected in 10 Downing Street. A significant chunk of the public has decided to keep calm and carry on, undeterred by the return of the virus. Train and bus operators report barely any change in traffic – a slight dip, but no more. Just over half of workers are still going to the office at least once a week. Figures shown inside government suggest only 3 per cent of workers have responded to his work-from-home request. There are clear signs of British lockdown fatigue.
This is not about ignorance. No one denies that there is a second wave of the virus: a study yesterday suggested that some 400,000 of us currently have it. But it’s also undeniable that the hospital figures of the number of Covid patients on ventilators are far lower: 332 – a tenth of what it once was. Deaths are rising: 59 were reported yesterday, up from three at the start of last month. But this is far less than the casualties from pneumonia and flu, which kill as surely as coronavirus. This is the big change: Covid-19 is starting to be seen as another virus, another risk. And one that millions now regard as manageable.
Shops are just as busy, footfall no lower since the second wave started – and consumer spending is back to about where it was before the virus. As are seats filled in restaurants. This is not a story of hedonism or recklessness: masks are being dutifully worn, hand sanitiser squirted and elbows bumped everywhere. Even Matt Hancock’s Covid app has been downloaded 14 million times. But there are not many signs that the fear inside No 10 – of a second wave even larger than the first – is being shared in the country more widely.
This is what takes us into politically dangerous territory. People tell opinion pollsters that they like restrictions – but they vote with their feet, and most are making their way to work. With almost a million jobs gone, and perhaps another million about to go, the economy has overtaken health as the subject that most concerns voters. People worry about their friends’ jobs, as well as their own. People who aren’t really fussed about eating out are doing so because they care about the survival of the pubs, restaurants and the local jobs that they wish to support. And if the
Government imposes another lockdown, while being unable to provide a shred of evidence about the efficacy, things may get tricky.
It’s often said that France and Spain are three weeks ahead of Britain in the second wave, so it’s worth looking at what’s happening there. The hardesthit city is Marseille, and Emmanuel Macron has sought to act swiftly with a two-week lockdown of its bars and restaurants. The first time around, they obeyed completely. This time, there is uproar. There have been street protests, demands for evidence showing what lockdown would achieve. Michèle Rubirola, the mayor, has lambasted Macron for inflicting “collective punishment” on her city.
In Madrid, there’s a similar story. It’s the epicentre of Spain’s outbreak and the national government wants to lock down – but the reaction, this time, is uproar. Isabel Díaz Ayuso, the president of the Madrid region, is proposing her own remedy: “Quick tests, quarantines – and life goes on.” She wants people to stop being “terrified” by warnings from central government and says she should not be treated like a “murderer” for arguing that the health system is not overwhelmed. She’s now suing the government.
Her focus is on hospital cases, where two in five of the city’s intensive care beds have Covid patients. Things have changed, utterly, since spring. Madrid was one of the worst-hit cities in Europe and its people entered lockdown without complaint. Now, the local authorities are fighting lockdown measures in court – as has happened in Marseille.
It is becoming such a problem that it’s being debated in the French parliament today, with Macron accused of lazily using emergency powers to impose draconian measures without even attempting to prove that they work.
There had been nothing at all like this in Britain – until yesterday, when the mayor of Middlesbrough broke ranks and declared that he’d “defy” the new local lockdown. Andy Preston, an entrepreneur elected last year, has no powers to defy anyone. He’s more of a spokesman but, here, he has quite a message. Unemployment, he says, is no remedy for Covid; a local lockdown will kill jobs and harm mental health. Like his counterparts in Marseille and Madrid (and, as of last night, Hartlepool), he’s asking for proof lockdown is needed – or that it works.
The Cabinet now has the chance to ask similar questions of Sir Patrick Vallance, the Government’s Chief Scientific Adviser, and Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer: both have now been asked to talk to ministers on a weekly basis. Perhaps the intention was to persuade ministers of the need for action, but it is having the opposite effect. Ministers have come away with the impression that there will be no vaccine by next Easter and we’ll have to give up talk (which the Prime Minister still indulges in) of “defeating” Covid. We’ll have to learn to live with it. Like swine flu, it could well be here to stay.
In parliament last week, Rishi Sunak had a phrase that summed up what ministers feel could be the slogan for the Covid policy they will end up with: it is time to “live without fear” and get on with life – accepting Covid as a manageable risk.
The Mayor of Middlesbrough is the first local government leader to make this point explicitly. He is unlikely to be the last.