Rule of six could be working as study shows fall in R rate

THE rule of six could be working, scientists believe, as new surveillance data show the coronavirus epidemic may be starting to slow again in England.

Researchers at Imperial College London, who have been testing thousands of members of the public since May, found that the steep increase of recent weeks is decelerating.

They believe that the “R” (reproduction) rate has fallen from around 1.7 to roughly 1.1, although the prevalence of disease in the community is still very high at roughly one person in 200 infected. It means the virus is still spreading, but that it is now doing so far more slowly.

Speaking at a briefing, Steven Riley, professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College London, said: “We have some evidence of deceleration in the epidemic.

“If we are hill-walking, then it was a steep hill and we have climbed quite a high way up. But the preliminary evidence is that the gradient of the hill has definitely come down.

“We do not know if we have reached the summit but the gradient of the hill has gone down a little bit. We need a downturn now. It’s a critical period and we need to get on top of it. It’s really important we redouble our efforts.”

The rule of six was brought in on Sept 14, and the new data run up to Sept 26.

Prof Paul Elliott, chair in epidemiology and public health medicine, at Imperial College London, said: “I think it is consistent with the timing of the rule of six but we can’t say that for sure.

“The prevalence is now very high. One in 200 people have the virus. But we are seeing optimistic signs. It does appear that some of the measures that have been put into place, or a combination of all the measures, may well have slowed the rate of rise.

“It’s very, very clear, people have begun to hear the message.”

The React study has carried out five rounds of sampling, of up to 160,000 people each time. It is being closely followed by the Government, and previous f i gures have led to t i ghter restrictions being imposed.

Although there are signs the disease may be slowing, researchers warned that in some parts of the country the situation was much bleaker. In the North, around one in 100 people currently has the disease, double the national rate. London is also seeing evidence of rises.