US election is now even less predictable

The presidential campaign was unpredictable enough. Now, Donald and Melania Trump have tested positive for coronavirus. The news follows a Supreme Court seat opening up, claims about Mr Trump’s taxes, a leaked tape of the First Lady discussing migration and the ugliest presidential debate in history, at which Mr Trump mocked Joe Biden for wearing his mask so often. Many readers will be asking “What on Earth could happen next?”

But is this really such a surprise in the midst of a pandemic? Leaders are not automatically immune. British minds went back to March when Boris Johnson suddenly came down with the virus; his hospital admission brought home just how serious Covid-19 can be, and probably shocked many into supporting a hardened lockdown.

But that was then. Now, we know a lot more about the disease, including what it does to the sufferer and their odds of fighting it. Brazil’s conservative leader, Jair Bolsonaro, had a mild bout, recovered and enjoyed a poll bounce. Many Trump supporters believe the lockdowns have gone too far and that the emphasis should be upon economic recovery – and most Americans won’t be thinking about politics at all, just wishing the best for a man who is controversial, yes, but also their president and a human being.

Pundits are divided over whether this development will be politically good or bad for Mr Trump. If he is forced to stop campaigning, that could take the wind out of his sails. A fast recovery might prove what he has always insisted, that he is one of the healthiest people alive. Constitutionally, such moments put the spotlight on vicepresidential candidates, and Mike Pence and Kamala Harris will go head-to-head in a debate of their own next Wednesday. The ratings might be higher than expected.

All of this uncertainty reflects ambiguity about the direction of the election itself. Whatever happens, the bookies remain reluctant to write Mr Trump off because too many made that mistake in 2016, when he was also behind Hillary Clinton in the polls – yet he still won the electoral college. We have long awaited an American election’s traditional “October surprise”. None could have guessed that it would turn out to be Mr Trump himself; the election could climax, perhaps pivot, on this intensely personal development.