Cracks are appearing in the arguments for lockdown

Until recently, anyone against the Government’s anti-covid restrictions was viewed as a mad “lockdown sceptic”. But something has shifted. Amid new restrictions, respected scientists now openly challenge the orthodoxy, putting their heads above the parapet. And, as the economic fallout gets worse, more and more ordinary people – not least Planet Normal podcast listeners – are angrily questioning these latest lockdown measures.

Having been imposed in March, “full lockdown” was eased in July – allowing the economy partially to recover. And last month, of course, children returned to school. But now we must all follow the “rule of six”, limiting social gatherings to half a dozen. And some local areas – particularly in the North East, North West and Midlands – are living with, or soon to face, even harsher rules.

Around 20 million of us, almost one in three, are now subject to curfews and other stricter social guidelines. Along with fines of up to £10,000, an impossible sum for the vast majority, the military will help police enforce these rules. Last Wednesday, Boris Johnson held a press conference, flanked by his scientific advisers. He didn’t announce new restrictions – the latest regional measures came the following morning. But he did assert: “There is only one way of doing this.”

The Government doubled down on its strategy of imposing drastic Covid-limiting measures on the entire population, reinforcing lockdown restrictions for all until a vaccine is found. But scientists including Oxford professors Sunetra Gupta and Carl Heneghan, as well as countless medical practitioners, insist this is misjudged. An “age-stratified” approach is far better, they argue, shielding the elderly and others with conditions making them less able to cope with Covid, while the rest of us get on with our lives.

The costs of lockdown – not just in terms of the economy and the life chances of youngsters, but also fatalities – is becoming ever more apparent. Missed non-covid medical appointments and the stress of unemployment, bankruptcy and financial collapse, means widespread restrictions kill people too.

Almost two weeks ago, at an earlier Downing Street press conference, Chief Scientific Adviser Sir Patrick Vallance unveiled his “horror graph” – showing daily Covid infections “doubling every seven days”, soaring to 50,000 by mid-october. “This isn’t a prediction,” he said, but it was the only scenario shown.

Since then, daily cases have risen much slower, from around 4,000 to between 6,000 and 7,000. If Vallance’s heavily highlighted non-prediction was going to happen, we’d be above 16,000 by now. Yes, daily Covid cases are roughly where they were in early April, the height of the pandemic – as we’re relentlessly told by TV news broadcasters. But back then we did fewer than 20,000 daily tests. Now it’s a quarter of a million. “This is like a camel with two humps,” says the Prime Minister. Properly scaled in terms of test numbers, though, the second hump is barely visible.

For a week during the spring, around 3,000 patients were hospitalised each day due to Covid. And, at the peak, on April 8, over 1,000 unfortunately died. But now, despite winter drawing in, when respiratory diseases always rise, Covid hospitalisation numbers are just one eighth of what they were in early April, with daily deaths, since the Vallance horror graph, averaging around 40.

So UK daily Covid cases are indeed similar to the spring peak. But far, far fewer Covid patients are in hospital and daily deaths have collapsed from 1,000-plus to low double digits. For weeks now, many more have died from flu and pneumonia than have died from Covid.

Yes, this virus is dangerous. We must all take personal precautions, while protecting the elderly. But the overwhelming majority of Covid deaths are among over-70s who have other underlying health conditions. And rising numbers of scientists and practising medics now feel the way to proceed is to shield the vulnerable, while the rest of us generate natural “population immunity”.

“I’ve been a doctor for over 30 years,” writes one Planet Normal listener. “In March, I saw lockdown as a prudent response to an unknown, scary situation. But since then, the cognitive dissonance between Government propaganda and what seems to be happening on critical analysis of the data is very disturbing.”

The view of this medic – whose background we’ve checked, but must stay anonymous for fear of losing his licence – chimes with that of countless health workers who’ve written to planetnormal@telegraph.co.uk

“The British medical establishment has a strong authoritarian streak,” he says, “and many influential consulting and outsourcing firms are doing very well out of this ‘crisis’ – with the revolving door between NHS executives and such companies frequently spinning.”

As anguish over anti-covid restrictions rises, cracks are appearing in the wall of silence keeping lockdown measures in place.

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