Is the NHS ready for a second wave?

The Government is coming under increasing pressure to justify its lockdown measures. Conservative backbenchers are growing restive, while Labour’s demand for proper evidence that the various restrictions work brings to an end the tone of political consensus that has hitherto surrounded the pandemic. Local politicians accuse the Government of turning their areas into a “Petri dish” for lockdown experiments. As the infection rate rises, further measures are expected, including a three-tier ranking for lockdowns across England, with potentially devastating implications for swathes of the economy.

The original lockdown was justified on the basis that the country needed to buy time to protect the NHS from a surge in hospitalisations and deaths. “Stay home, protect the NHS, save lives” was arguably too successful a slogan, given how difficult it proved over the summer to encourage people to resume their normal business when the virus was in retreat. In the event, NHS capacity was not overwhelmed, although it is debatable whether lockdown measures were responsible for this. Now, ministers might be tempted to return to the argument that was so persuasive back in March.

Is the NHS ready for a second wave of the virus? If not, it could be seen as an effective admission that the first lockdown was futile. The health service has had months to prepare for the virus’s return, and has been given significant resources to do so. Personal protective equipment has been rolled out, testing increased, virus treatments improved and seven Nightingale hospitals were built in record time to provide extra beds.

Questioning the readiness of the NHS would also contradict the organisation’s own campaign to reassure the public that it is open for business – that it is not just a Covid service but a health service, too. It certainly needs to be. In March, only 3,097 people had been waiting more than a year for treatment in England; by August, that number had increased to more than 110,000.

Progress has been made and a fresh appeal for patients to return to GPS and hospitals is welcome. But the Government is going to have to restore the confidence lost during the first lockdown – and a “protect the NHS” message, which feels like turning the clock back, would undermine that effort.