Stricter measures too hasty, warn experts
IMPOSING new lockdown restrictions would be “too hasty”, scientists warned, after figures showed that up to a quarter of patients in hospital with Covid-19 caught the virus after being admitted.
Statisticians last night called on the Government to “pause”, having shown a significant proportion of escalating hospital cases were down to poor Covid security within the NHS trusts.
Across England, 18 per cent of patients in hospital with Covid-19 tested positive for the virus for the first time seven days or more after admission.
The proportion was highest – 24 per cent – in the North West, which is under imminent threat of lockdown.
The rising number of hospitalised Covid-19 patients in the region was explicitly referred to by Matt Hancock this week in a speech warning of possible further restrictions.
There were growing concerns the NHS had failed to learn lessons from the first wave of the pandemic in allowing high levels of transmission within hospitals. Probable healthcare-associated infections appeared to be as bad, if not worse, than those recorded at the height of the first wave, despite an order by Sir Simon Stevens, NHS England’s chief executive, in June for hospitals to improve their Covid security.
Prof Carl Heneghan, who led the analysis at the University of Oxford, said many of the new hospital cases could be
‘It shows it’s too early and too hasty to reach for more restrictive measures. We have a lot in place already’
elderly people admitted for other conditions. “I think this shows it’s too early and too hasty to reach for more restrictive measures. We have a lot of measures in place already,” he said. “Once you start to get into the data it’s not as simple as cases rising, or hospitals admissions rising. This shows there is a significant problem with healthcareacquired infections.”
Prof Heneghan’s analysis derives from a new data stream released by the NHS which denotes when hospital inpatients first tested positive for Covid19: either before admission, upon admission, or seven days or more after admission.
Those testing positive for the first time a week or more after arriving are assumed to have caught the disease in hospital.
Between Sept 15 – the first day since spring on which there were more than 150 admissions – and Sept 30, there were only three days when hospitalacquired cases amounted to 10 per cent or more in-patient Covid cases.
However, the proportion has stayed above 10 per cent every day from Sept 30 to Oct 6.
“This indicates that we should be thoughtful and analytical,” said Prof Heneghan.
“We should wait to see what happens over the next week.
“We might find the measures we have in place are having an effect. But we run the risk of losing the trust of the population if we rush in hastily with more measures.”
A three-tier system is expected to be announced shortly, which could see large areas of the north of England placed under further restrictions, including the closure of pubs and restaurants, and a ban on overnight stays.
On Wednesday, Mr Hancock described this week as a “perilous moment in the course of the pandemic”.
He added: “I am very worried about the growth in the number of cases, especially in the North West and North East of England, and parts of Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland, and parts of Yorkshire.”
A spokesman for the NHS in the North West said: “As ONS and other data conclusively demonstrate, the root cause of rising Covid infections and hospitalisations across the North West is rising community transmission, not nosocomial acquisition.
“Hospitals are asked to rigorously follow regularly updated guidance on infection prevention and control and unsurprisingly, nosocomial numbers have tended to track increases in local community prevalence.”