Huddling from nasty weather may be causing rise in infection

THE worsening autumnal weather could be to blame for the rise in coronavirus infections, as people huddle inside, experts have said.

This week, the latest results of Imperial College’s surveillance study showed that infections may be as high as 96,000 a day, and doubling every nine days.

Steven Riley, professor of Infectious Disease Dynamics at Imperial said some of the rise could be down to the seasonality of the virus. Many viruses, such as flu, spread more easily in the cooler months because they are surrounded

‘Weather changes how we mix, and recent poor weather could certainly have led to these patterns’

by a fatty protective coating which degrades in warmer weather. Colder weather also changes behaviour, with people spending more time indoors, where the virus is likely to spread.

Speaking at a briefing to present the new findings, Prof Riley said: “It could be seasonal in the sense of behaviour. Weather changes how we mix and recent poor weather could have led to a small change in our average behaviour.

“But a small change in everybody’s behaviour could certainly have led to these patterns. There are other explanations but that is a reasonable one.”

However, he said that lockdown fatigue may be leading to less compliance, which was having a bigger overall effect. “Another explanation is not to do with the weather, just an overall slight relaxation of compliance to the guidance – everyone relaxing just a little bit,” he added.