Britain and EU edge towards deal on fishing as MPS prepare for vote

The new virus strain means Britain is in a race to avert incalculable social and economic damage

BRITAIN and the EU moved closer to a compromise on fisheries last night as MPS were told to prepare to vote on a possible deal on Wednesday next week.

The Government tabled an 11th-hour proposal under which the bloc would cut the value of its fishing catch in UK waters by around a third over a transition period of five years, it was claimed. This was down from an initial demand to cut it by 60 per cent over three years.

EU negotiators have held out for a reduction of 25 per cent over a sevenyear transition, according to reports. The bloc initially tabled a cut of 18 per cent over 10 years. However, an EU official told The Daily Telegraph of the UK’S latest offer: “It’s still a no from us.”

Last night, Boris Johnson played down the prospect of an imminent deal. He confirmed he had spoken to Emmanuel Macron, the French president, about France’s freight and flight ban on the UK. However, their “excellent conversation” did not stretch to the subject of the trade talks.

A government source hit back at reports, first published by Bloomberg, that the UK would accept an EU reduction in the value of the fish it catches in UK water of around 33 per cent, saying:

“It’s not right, it’s not the offer and the EU are still miles off what we need.”

Michel Barnier, the EU’S chief negotiator, has been in regular contact with EU fishing nations. They had made clear that giving up more than 25 per cent was “a massive issue”, an official said.

However, it also emerged yesterday that ministers had drawn up plans for deal legislation to clear both Houses of Parliament and gain royal assent in a single day next week. If a deal is clinched in the coming days, a Bill is set to be drafted within 48 hours and would be put to votes in the Commons and the Lords on Dec 30, according to government sources. Any secondary legislation could then be passed the next day.

This would ensure the legislation was passed just before the deadline for the Brexit transition period to end at 11pm on Dec 31. The Prime Minister has ruled out extending the transition period.

Senior Tory Brexiteers warned they needed time to digest the legal text of a Bill. A senior member of the European Research Group said yesterday: “If one is agreed, it is vitally important that it is published as soon as possible thereafter so that all MPS will have a chance to examine it before the House returns.”

A government source said any deal would not come before MPS until Dec 30. MPS will take part in debates by Zoom from the next sitting onwards.

‘It is vitally important a Bill is published as soon as possible so that all MPS will have a chance to examine it’

It is understandable that Boris Johnson’s decision to ask much of the country to abandon their plans for Christmas with almost no notice has been subject to intense criticism. Some people think it should have happened earlier, others that it is not necessary at all, still others that some kind of conspiracy to achieve a tighter lockdown without parliamentary approval is afoot.

The Government may have made many mistakes in the handling of the pandemic, but most people who read the minutes of the expert committee Nervtag that met on Friday would agree with this latest decision of an obviously reluctant Prime Minister. Not only did the information available show that the new mutant strain of Covid-19 has a “growth rate that is 71 per cent higher than other variants” but the minutes also record the scientists’ view that “estimates of the frequency of this variant may be underestimates”.

While all this added up to only “moderate confidence” that this really is a much more infectious strain of the virus, with more analysis needed, no responsible PM could have taken the risk of assuming that such findings would turn out to be wrong. And since these alarming findings were produced at a meeting on Friday lunchtime, it is a complete waste of time to indulge in conspiracy theories that the weekend timing of the announcement was a way of dodging scrutiny from a House of Commons that had just adjourned.

Some prominent Conservative MPS have alleged that it was all too convenient and that a decision was delayed until they were safely away in their constituencies. This does not stack up – why would Boris Johnson have poured scorn on Sir Keir Starmer for wanting to cancel Christmas plans only last Wednesday if he had a secret plan to do so himself? The country is in enough of a crisis and the world has quite enough wacky conspiracy ideas – including bizarre assertions that vaccinations are all a plot by Bill Gates to inject us all with tracking devices – without starting new ones in our domestic politics.

Rather than questioning the Government’s motives and refighting battles over lockdowns, the focus of ministers and MPS should be on a new and crucial question, which is whether the speed, scale and resilience of the vaccination programme can be intensified.

For the awful reality is that if the mutant variant is as infectious as thought likely, the prospects for the next few months have changed dramatically for the worse.

Instead of sitting out the winter with moderate restrictions while the vaccines are administered, there is a risk of the virus overcoming anything but the toughest of lockdowns. This is now a very serious race to avert incalculable economic and social damage and greater loss of life. If you are in such a race, you have to concentrate your mind on every possible way of running faster and not tripping.

Ministers have prepared in huge detail for the massive vaccination effort of the coming months. That effort has already started and will become far bigger if the Oxford/astrazeneca vaccine is approved by regulators in the coming days. GP clinics have started vaccinating hundreds of thousands of high-risk patients. Hundreds of hospital trusts will be doing the same for health workers and patients. Then huge venues such as conference centres, racecourses and sports stadiums will be used as mass vaccination points for everyone else, in order of priority based on age.

My advice for my former colleagues in the Cabinet is to take this plan, however impressive it may be, and question how every single component of it can be speeded up or protected against failure. I would bring in a team of bright people who have had nothing to do with it to subject it to any possible criticism or constructive suggestion. The emergence of the new strain means every hour of each day is going to count. This needs to be a national mobilisation of resources on a scale never before seen outside of war. And as in war, it has to be built on the expectation that many things will go wrong with it.

The most valid critique of the Government in the pandemic is that it has not been effective at anticipating events, although few governments have been immune from that. Now is the time to ask the questions about this vital effort. Is there any way of speeding up the production of vaccines? Are there enough military and charter aircraft on stand-by to fly vaccine doses to Britain if borders remain closed by our neighbours? What happens if more NHS staff than expected succumb to the virus before they receive the vaccine? Are the 10,000 extra staff being recruited to help at vaccination centres sufficient? What happens if more of them fall ill than we have planned for? Do we need more vaccination centres? Do we have enough military expertise devoted to this whole exercise? Can those involved work longer shifts, or open all night, or can some people be vaccinated at home?

Even the order of priority is worth questioning when a vaccine has to be rolled out in a society in which many walks of life are being closed down. Should vital workers in key industries be injected before people in their fifties? Should teachers be a higher priority given the colossal damage to young people of closing down schools? If not, is it better to delay now the staggered start of school openings in January? Do haulage drivers need rapid jabs so that trucks can keep moving? What about pilots and ferry crews?

I don’t know the answers to all these questions but I do know I would be asking them. Ministers might well consider they have had a thorough look at all such issues. If so, they should go over them all again. Some will need a different answer than they did a week ago. Rolling out a vaccine in the face of a static threat is one thing – but doing so against a virus that just might become uncontainable may require some different decisions and a bigger margin for error and unforeseen delays.

When MPS do debate what happens next, they should set aside their recriminations about Christmas. The Government’s problem is not that it is secretive or conniving. It is that it is about to run a truly vital race against time.