Vallance cools hopes of lifting lockdown early

AT least 70 per cent of the population would need to be protected from coronavirus to achieve herd immunity, Sir Patrick Vallance has said, raising fears that an early release from control measures is unlikely.

Government sources have said ministers are working towards lifting restrictions at Easter despite initially suggesting they would be reviewed in mid-february if all over-70s are vaccinated by then. Sir Patrick, the chief scientific adviser to the Government, yesterday suggested it may take even longer to reach levels that would stop transmission, indicating that about 46 million people would need immunity, either through vaccination or a prior infection.

He warned that just one in eight people in England has previously had the virus which means around 39 million would still require the jab, and probably more, because many of the vaccinated would have already had Covid so would count twice.

Only the first four groups of the Joint

Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) priority list will be vaccinated by mid-february – amounting to about 15 million people – well below herd immunity levels. Figures show that at current rates of vaccine deployment – about 1.8 million per week – herd immunity would not be achieved until the summer at the earliest.

Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, is under pressure from some of his own backbenchers to commit to easing the current restrictions by the end of the first week in March, but Sir Patrick suggested it will take longer, and told

Sky News it would require “70 per cent or more” coverage. “I don’t see a release of these measures being a sensible thing to do in the short term,” he said.

“There are some people who want to perpetually release things sooner, perpetually don’t want to go into lockdown, arguing that nothing is going to happen, there isn’t going to be a second wave, another increase.

“This causes quite a lot of confusion in the public debate.

“It’s worth remembering the definition of insanity by Einstein which is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome. The lesson is that every time you release it too quickly you get that upswing. You can see that right across the world.”

The JCVI has previously said that a vaccine of 70 per cent efficacy – similar to that of the Oxford Astrazeneca jab – would require 70 per cent coverage in order to negate the need for social distancing. Some experts believe the variant has now pushed it to 80 per cent.

MPS who expressed alarm at legislation governing the current lockdown remaining in place until March 31 were assured at the time it was just a precaution and that restrictions were expected to start falling away before then.

But Sir Patrick added: “We’re still at really, really high levels. One in 55. The prospect of spread is still high.

“This is absolutely not the time to talk about relaxing measures. And the vaccine roll-out is critical, we’ve got to get on top of that.

“The advice at the moment is that vaccines are not going to do the heavy lifting for us at the moment. This is, I’m afraid, about the restrictive measures … and carrying on with those.”