Staggering the return of universities of ‘limited value’

STAGGERING the return of universities will simply delay coronavirus outbreaks until later in the year, a study suggests.

Researchers from nine universities analysed the spread of Covid-19 on campuses from the autumn term last year. There were multiple outbreaks when students returned to university, but the authors said the scale of the outbreaks varied “considerably”.

The researchers investigated the use of different control measures to stem infections and found a staggered return of students would have “limited value”.

The study, which was posted online as part of the documents considered by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, modelled four scenarios: all students return on the same day, each student returns on a random day in a 14 day interval, each student returns on a random day in a 28 day interval, and the students return in three weekend “pulses”. Although the “pulses” scenario delayed outbreaks for the longest period, without other control measures “staggering will not much reduce the overall attack rate over the course of the academic term”, they said.

From March 8, in-person learning can resume for students who are studying practical courses.

Government advice suggests universities with “high proportions of returning students should consider staggering their return to minimise the numbers of students travelling at the same time”.

“This staggered approach can essentially delay and decrease the size of the peak of infection,” said Dr Edward Hill, from the University of Warwick. “But overall, the number of people infected during the course of the academic term is roughly similar.”

When looking at the benefits of using lateral flow tests, the authors found “extremely frequent” testing would be needed to prevent a major outbreak.