Data boost prompts calls for faster freedoms
As death rates fall quicker than modelling, experts argue there is case to ease lockdown sooner
FALLS in death rates in England are now running around three weeks ahead of the central modelling estimates, figures show, leading to calls to ease lockdown more quickly.
Boris Johnson has promised that the Government will lift restrictions based on “data, not dates”, yet figures show that the country’s second wave is declining far faster than expected.
The most recent SPI-M (Scientific
Pandemic Influenza Modelling group) projections were produced on Feb 10 and were pivotal in developing the Government’s roadmap.
The midpoint projections estimated that deaths in England would not fall below 200 a day until around midmarch, yet we reached that milestone on Feb 25. SPI-M suggested there would be around 150 deaths a day by March 21, when the model ends. But we are around that now for daily deaths by date of death, although there will be a small increase because of lagged data in the coming days. In fact, the current number of deaths is lower than the bestcase scenario of the models.
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, a member of SPI-M, said: “If the phrase ‘data-driven, not datedriven’ has any meaning, it must allow for the schedule for relaxing restrictions to be brought forward if the data are better than expected, not just putting the schedule back if the data are worse than expected. If we unlock too far, too quickly we risk a resurgence. However, given the data, I’d hope that the Government is actively considering unlocking just as cautiously but appreciably less slowly.”
Yesterday, Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister said her Government would be considering if it might be possible to accelerate the exit from lockdown “in light of the positive data”, increasing pressure on the Prime Minister to make a similar commitment.
The models for SPI-M appear to have underestimated the impact of vaccination. Latest Office for National Statistics figures show that deaths in the over-80s have fallen by 56 per cent since January and 56.4 per cent of the over-80s in England now have antibodies to coronavirus.
Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, of the University of Cambridge said: “If we look at what is happening every day as we see on the [Government’s coronavirus] dashboard, we can see that deaths in the over-65s, one of the vaccinated age groups, are now halving every week. Frankly, it is better than anyone expected, I think.”
Prof Carl Heneghan, director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford University, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check if the numbers would continue to fall. “We all have to hit the pause button until then,” he said: “But if after schools go back, there isn’t a big uptick, we’re in a different position of opening up sooner rather than later.”
The numbers of new hospital admissions are also falling slightly faster than anticipated by the SPI-M model. Admissions in England fell to roughly 1,000 by Feb 21. The midpoint on the models suggested around 1,200 cases at that point. The seven-day rolling figure shows numbers closer to those modelled.
One government adviser, who was reluctant to be named, said scientists had consistently failed to update their models as new data became available.
“This has been a problem all the way through,” said the expert. “You can get so obsessed with models that if the world doesn’t fit, you have to make the world fit, or ignore the world.”
Latest ONS figures show that 56.4 per cent of the over-80s in England now have antibodies to coronavirus following the rollout of the vaccine, an increase of 37 per cent in a fortnight.
Overall, nearly one in four over-16s in England now has immunity, a total of 10.5million people and an increase of 23.3 per cent in two weeks.
Death registrations where Covid-19 is mentioned have fallen by 56 per cent in the over-80s since January.
The devolved nations are not doing quite as well however, with just 18.5 per cent of the over-80s showing antibodies in Wales, 20.7 per cent in Scotland and 17.6 per cent in Northern Ireland.