Lockdowns were not nearly enough to meet carbon emission cuts targets, say scientists

A GLOBAL lockdown every two years would be needed to meet Paris Agreement emission reduction targets, a study has suggested.

Emissions cuts equivalent to those caused by the Covid crisis would be enough to slow global warming to more manageable levels, but the global economy has to decarbonise in order to make them sustainable, academics at the University of East Anglia said.

They calculated that the 2.6-gigatonne drop in carbon dioxide emissions, caused by the world grinding to a halt during the crisis, would need to be repeated every two years for global temperature rises to be limited to the target of “well below” 2C.

On average, among countries that were cutting output during 2016-19, carbon dioxide emissions fell by 0.19 gigatonnes, roughly tenfold less than the necessary levels of between 1 and 2 gigatonnes per year, the authors added.

“Although the measures to tackle the pandemic will reduce emissions by about 7 per cent in 2020, they will not, on their own, cause lasting decreases in emissions because these temporary measures have little impact on the fossil fuel-based infrastructure that sustains the world economy,” said the paper, published in the journal Nature Climate Change. Prof Rob Jackson of Stanford University, who co-authored the study, said: “Commitments alone aren’t enough. Countries need to align postcovid incentives with climate targets this decade, based on sound science and credible implementation plans.”

Commenting on the study, Richard Pancost, professor of biogeochemistry at the University of Bristol, said: “This is a powerful and timely analysis that confirms that the disruption caused by Covid had an impact on emissions – but not much of one.

“In doing so, this work highlights the scale of the decarbonisation challenge we face, and the need for utmost urgency.”

Dr Robin Lamboll, research associate in climate science and policy at the Grantham Institute, added: “A drop in emissions for one or two years doesn’t really have a long-term effect on climate change.

“The question for the future is to what extent the emissions reduction indicates a change of culture, and to what extent government assistance is going toward growing a greener economy rather than rebooting fossil fuels.”